EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Linky?

Edit to add.. re Peronism

"Perón's government often silenced dissent by accusing opponents of being unpatriotic"

I'd say we're already a way down that path, although I feel the Torys would rather stick with the fascist part and leave out the nationalisation.

In light of the Brexit situation, I have to say, I'm intrigued that the Tory government is pushing the Overseas Electors Bill forward. It's something that has annoyed me for years; that my involvement in the choice of a UK gov was limited to 15 years (still got a few to go). What I'm not sure about is why the Tories think this is a good idea as they do little that doesn't serve their interest.

Are they relying on UK overseas voters who've lived outside the UK for more than 15 years to remember the garden parties with tea and cucumber sandwiches, bunting fluttering in the wind blowing across the sunlit uplands? Will this automatically lead to more blue votes? Certainly in Luxembourg, a LOT of the long-term British immigrants are definitely blue tinged in their politics but likewise most of the people I've spoken to are enraged about the restrictions that Brexit has placed on their future plans and blame the Tories for it.

Perhaps they're planning to create a number of overseas MPs to represent the interests of that voting block and they assume that these will be overwhelmingly Tory winners.

I would think that Terry and June, drawing their UK pension in their villa in Spain will be a dead cert for a Tory overseas vote.

fuck knows, defo not gravel cyclists

I can only think of one person I know to be receiving UC while on a low wage (part-time retail), and I've got no idea whether that's claimed simply as an income support measure - for housing and childcare - or whether it's also supposed to be supporting a job search. I'd guess the former.

What is pretty shitty is that tax credits are much closer to a subsidy allowing employers to avoid paying a living wage, rather than to a top up helping to lift people out of poverty.

We're given just shy of 12k in UC a year to top up my full time wages to go towards (not to fully pay) the private landlord. There is a breakdown in the monthly statement to tell you how they work it out. From my understanding we wouldn't count as a "looking for work"claim (with couples it is always a joint UC claim) whilst toddler isn't old enough to qualify for free childcare - so every parent claiming UC with a child under 3 is not "looking for work"?
The daily rate of nursery care around here sits around £85 so presently Mrs Y working Spoons would not cover childcare costs required on top of decreasing UC by 66 pence / £ earned after the 16hours / week threshold.

And thus the lie that with UC work will always pay, that it will reward strivers not skivers, etc etc.

I had of course completely forgotten the vital role of HB (or the housing element of UC) in transferring public money to private pockets.

Eire cements its status as the corp tax giveaway gotcha. The G is as always useless on the details of this seemingly double irish/sex on the Bermuda beach cocktail of tax planning.
No comments from the E Commission. I assume Mairead is on the phone home today in light of her tweet on Monday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/03/microsoft-irish-subsidiary-paid-zero-corporate-tax-on-220bn-profit-last-year

https://mobile.twitter.com/McGuinnessEU/status/1399806852825821186

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-more-engagement-northern-ireland-talks/?fbclid=IwAR2O5xEXeC3aQj6v49xA5SsPvl3B6nyBgcx3Cp6-w-AQ0Z7czy-3LIrzvw0

That the EU won't accept GB food standards is logical. (3rd country status, USA trade deal risks, not bothering with checks...)

But that Frost&co don't accept a temporary EU agreement they can cancel when needed...that puzzles me.

This is the only study on overseas voters which I'm aware of. Terry and June may not be the dead cert you think they are.

http://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/52513

Is this again a matter of who adjudicates over disputes? I assume the Swiss style vet rules the EU are proposing are subject to ECJ jurisdiction, and the frost equivalence proposal is not?

At least both sides are engaged

Ah, you are right it could be the EJC oversight.

But surely the UK already accepted oversight for certain industries under a different label?

Oh wait that's logical reasoning not political Brexit reasoning, silly me 😁

As far as I'm aware ECJ jurisdiction is a red line for the UK. Which industry agreements fall within ECJ jurisdiction?

The Northern Ireland Protocol

ECJ jurisdiction is theoretically time barred as the NI Assembly can exit the protocol. I'm not sure if the terms could actually be enforced. Who would the ECJ fine?

UK exporters to the EU

The ECJ has no means to enforce a fine on a UK corporate entity.

No, but it can decide on the size of fine that is warranted and then apply that to for e.g. financial services access to the EU market.

One of our major issues is that we think the EU should deal with us as an equal, whereas to the EU we are a third country alongside Belarus and Turkey to be managed. Only once we admit to the asymmetric nature of our relationship will we be able to make progress.

I double checked, looks like the ejc is gone, but flight licenses over Europe used to be ECJ overseen.

I guess oversight now done under a different name as you do need some trade dispute mechanisms.

Perhaps an oversight rebrand of the temporary deal can unlock it.

The hassle we have in Northern Ireland with checks is on Frost, Give, Johnson and a few others now.

Perhaps once checks for EU to GB food kick in later this year they'll tone down.

One of our major issues is that we think the EU should deal with us as
an equal, whereas to the EU we are a third country

So, so much this.

alongside Belarus and Turkey

Maybe not quite so much this (in terms of economic power and influence at least).

Only once we admit to the asymmetric nature of our relationship will
we be able to make progress.

And, sadly, so unlikely ever this.

In the sense that we could have been a partner to collaborate with- but our petulance and entitlement have ensured that we are instead a problem to be managed.

We also have not taken on board that our influence and economic importance were at their highest six years or so ago and that we are on a downward slope now- where we end up is the question here, and UK Peronism may hold the answer to that.

Only once we admit to the asymmetric nature of our relationship will we be able to make progress

The death of English exceptionalism might be the only sliver lining to brexit.

I suspect it’s our most dearly held treasure

I suspect it’s our most dearly held treasure

Wait. It's not Passport Blue dye?

In the sense that we could have been a partner to collaborate with-

Yes, that would have helped to enable a better outcome, but being a 'partner' would never have sold as well to the target voter groups, and it was sadly inevitable that the EU would have to be painted as the enemy to rally the troops back home.