EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Hahaha! Though they have inexplicably acquired some ferries in the past year...

Nah, they are expecting cultural venues to get involved, which seems unlikey given how divisive it is.

The Ulster Museum basically called out Brexit as a reason EU nurses were leaving, so yeah, good luck with that!

As for flegs and bunting, we have to put up with that the whole year in NI, with outbursts of Moar Fleggery and Fuckery twice a year. Can't wait, Arlene is probably giddy with excitement.

https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1304030007174537218

thought this was interesting. So Boris the evil clown only wants to scrap goods forms for NI to GB. The EU won't care much about that I'd say...

State Aid is another thing, but sure, just say yes and do what France does. And that is supposed to only apply to NI? Is he trying to keep the unionists on board...?

I reckon we’ll have another general election before the end of November.

you were predicting elections every 2 month for the past 2 or 3 years.

And of course we famously have had none in that time.

none when you predicted it, no.

Lies

Why wouldn't the EU care about that? That would be a direct hit to their single market, so would be one of the first things they'd flag. The integrity of the single market has been paramount from the get go, and will continue to be so. It's the EU's raison d'être, so I'd be amazed if they'd be OK with letting goods travel undeclared from Eng/Scot/Wales to NI and the into the EU.

Edit: but then I read that Twitter thread and can't follow it tbh, not sure what he means.

The EU will never allow NI to be a backdoor into the Single Market, it'd destroy it.

How do you think that will happen exactly? This shower have an 80 seat majority and we're heading for no deal, there isn't enough sanity left in the Tory party to prevent it.

NI to GB is single market into non single market. If it stops there, they may not care too much.

NI into ROI with no checks either GB to NI (as per withdrawal agreement) or NI to ROI on the other hand...

I fear this is a dare to ROI to let them put a border up to prevent that, which is a really shitty thing to do, to put it mildly.

Now there are rumours Tesco may withdraw distribution / processing facilities from NI as either way NI to GB and back are going to be a hassle.

It's going great 🙄

How do you think that will happen exactly? This shower have an 80 seat majority and we're heading for no deal, there isn't enough sanity left in the Tory party to prevent it.

Johnson won't get this bill through the HoL, and he can't present the same bill twice, but he can't back down because the fanatics in his party will revolt. He has an 80 seat majority, but only for doing things that the ERG wants - as soon as he tries to do something they don't then they will revolt en-masse.

I think he's stuck. What does he do if the HoL refuse his bill and he's then got to wear the situation he's just told everyone is impossible? Plus the EU is going to put much stronger enforcement provisions in anything they agree to sign with the UK now.

There's an obvious reason we won't have another GE. Nobody electable to replace Boris.

Yeah Rishi seems hip right now but if it came to it he'd be exposed as a fucking noob.

But what can they do? Dissolve parliament, fresh queens speech, new session and put their bill back with some modifications? Not enough time.

If Johnson has to resign he will not care what happens to the party, and I don't see how he can stay once he finds he can't get his bill through.

I'm not sure but he's pretty shameless and unlikely to care if he has to back down, change his mind, make a u-turn, new direction, consult the Corbyn manifesto from 2019, etc.

But the second he wavers he loses the ERG, which is likely to be his majority. I can't recall what the last estimate was for the membership but it's 40+.

I'm not so sure. Graham Brady (chair of the 1922) was on LBC earlier discussing the Boris piece in The Telegraph and he seemed to know almost nothing about it other than the sentence that made the headlines, even though he was adamant he'd read the draft bill but couldn't explain it when questioned.

My point is that they are basic herd animals rather than driven idealogues so might just fall in line when told to, and Boris might have agreed a senior position to give out to instigate that compliance. This is how it all really works no?

They are fanatics and will stop at nothing to get their way. As soon as Johnson isn’t the route to their promised land they’ll treat him like they did May.

Would Labour want a GE right now? Me thinks not.

They want to hang this mess around the Tories necks for the next 20 years. Not take the baton on the final leg.

I'd like one though. Always enjoy election night.

HoL can only send the bill back a few times before the commons can force it through. The 80 seat majority means the HoL is toothless in the face of this government.

My limited understanding is that the deadline is his problem, they could resort to the Parliment Act but it allows the Lords one year delaying power before the Commons can force it through, which Boris doesn't have

There will never be a GE in the next year though. If the party gets sick of Johnson they will ditch him and install Gove ( or Raab or Patel (!)) But never in a million years will they give up an 80 seat majority.

The Salisbury Convention, which you are citing here, is based upon manifesto commitments. With this Bill, there is a view that, because the Government campaigned and were elected on the deal as encapsulated in the Withdrawal Agreement, then changing that goes against what is expected and can be challenged by the Lords.