EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

I can't see it being necessary. Johnson will take a load of Farage's votes, I don't reckon the Brexit Party would get a single seat.

He may not want certain MP's to retain their seats - he can purge the Tory party of those he thinks will not support him. Having an agreement with BXP means that is de-risked.

I'm all for predicting.

But can we have a list of predicted outcomes that came true from people on here?
Someone, not me,can scrape and text analysis it. Thanks.

Lol

I predicted a hard Brexit, so it'll have to wait.

Well I still stand by my predictions:
https://www.lfgss.com/comments/14580097/

Do your Christmas food shopping now, before it all runs out.

I'll wait with predictions nearer October.

I'm not sure this government will last or BoJo will really get his hard brexit through.

Bye bye UK in 10-20 years if he does and a border poll / indyref2 happen.

Autumn election, spring referendum, we don’t leave after all.

We leave with some slight rejig (sold as a huge concession) to May's withdrawal agreement.

I predict that within five years many of us will be refugees.

In France you will find the phrase "Je suis un ancien coureur cycliste" generally goes down pretty well (especially if it's true!).

Various mentions of a snap election or an autumn election in the papers. Is that generally meant to be before or after 31st Oct?

No idea, but interesting dates are that they get back from holidays on 3rd September; parliament is dissolved for a month up to a GE; Brexit date is 31st October.

Isn't it :
"do this deal that's on the table, or we'll have a GE. And look, here are my friends the BXP just waiting to take over your positions. It would be terrible wouldn't it? do the vote"

Who is that conversation meant to be with?

Boris has nailed his colours to the mast with his new Cabinet, plus making Mogg his Bercow/Grieve shield. He can't bring May's deal to the HoC, and he can't bring a different deal to the HoC because one isn't available.

If he's having that conversation with the EU 27 then the answer will be "Non".

He's betting that with Cummings on board and a position that makes BXP look lily-livered he'll be able to win a significant majority in a GE, then use that majority to do what he wants.

I'm betting also that he'll ask for, and be given an extension for said GE.

I think you’re spot-on. The only thing that might scupper it for him would be a no-confidence vote somewhere in there from the opposition. But it would probably fail, unless very well/fortunately timed. And that would almost certainly need a number of defections to Lib Dems.

Jo Swinson has, just now, proposed a No Confidence vote to J Corbyn, asking for his cooperation.

All these predictions assume Boris Johnson has some sort of plan. He doesn't. His plan was to become Prime Minister. Now his plan is to stay as Prime Minister. Each day in office he will promise whatever seems to make that more likely, but there is no plan, and no need to keep those promises.

I think his new cabinet shows that he has a plan, it's too consistent, too thorough, and too full of incompetent headbangers.

Jo Swindon

Very good.

Pandering to the base just like Johnson.

Logical thing to do, no? She wants votes, she's already got a lot of both Labour and Tory voters who don't want no-deal, she's trying to make Corbyn take a position, either cooperate with her or align with Mogg and flush out another group of voters to the LD's.

She's using the threat of VONC to make him take a position, something he's managed to avoid for three years. Personally, I'd like to see what it is.

He's said no

Interesting to see what happens next.

Conversation with HoC.

Battle is gonna be won or lost on social strategy: https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1154163082031185921