EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Parliament will (I believe) stop that.

Once he has the whip he’s sorted for ‘no deal’ votes right?

You think that if he whips the tories to vote for no deal they'll all do it?

Some Tories will defy the whip. Johnson has to hope enough Labour MPs vote with him to counter the Tory rebels.

For e.g. Grieve says he'll do everything he can to bring down the government to avoid no-deal.

FWIW I don't think it'd be that close, if it came to it - the vote today won't be how they vote when the chips are down.

You think that if he whips the tories to vote for no deal they'll all do it?

Of course not. But enough may well.

If Boris (running on the tacit remit of leaving with no deal) is voted in as PM, Conservative MPs will factor-in this instruction from the membership going forward.

It’s a judgment call, but I’d say conservative MPs are more sensitive to the immediate threat (to their careers and party) than the chaos (largely for others) caused by no deal. I’d love to be wrong.

Looks like we’re about to find out

Boris is doing what he needs to do to get elected, to get the top job as its all he cares about. So he was staying quiet not to piss the MPs off with an inevitable gaff and then saying what he thinks Party members want to hear. He knows very well that he wont get a no deal through without some kind of constitutional shenanigan. But will cross that bridge when it comes. He is just saying whatever is needed to advance his own career.

Oh hang on when did he last do that.... lying ****

Plus I cant think of any time recently Rees-Mogg and the ERG have been so quiet. Plus Corbyn is being typically uselessly quiet as well. Just at the time he should be really giving the Tories a hard time for this and being really clear what the option is.

Not per recent Ashcroft's / yougov exit polls, very few have swung to Brexit party.

Per Gina miller research all but two of those areas have swung to remain.

They really think he'll win many votes from Farage?

I'm not really sure that gamble will pay off. It will if be pushed brexit through, maybe, but even then it will mean lots of other voters may mobilize to stop a majority in government for the Conservatives.

Not sure it's a good long term strategy but the long term thinking seems lacking ATM.

There is no long term strategy, it’s just a case of say what you can to get more power, which is why we had Theresa May as PM and why next we’ll end up with the British Trump because he knows what to lies to say to get in.

Of course, they believe Boris will take us out of the EU. With that the Farage vote collapses.

Has this been resolved yet?

Plus Corbyn is being typically uselessly quiet as well. Just at the time he should be really giving the Tories a hard time for this and being really clear what the option is.

I think he wants Boris, and he wants Boris to fail at either leaving or renegotiating, as he knows that a GE is the result - and that's all he's ever wanted.

The wildcard here is whether Boris goes for referendum ahead of GE, or vice-versa.

I can't work out what the best route forward is here, probably GE ahead of referendum as (I think) it'll shake down as follows:

Tories: referendum on no deal vs WA
Labour: Labour Brexit
Lib Dems: Referendum on WA vs Remain
Greens: Referendum WA vs Remain
SNP: Referendum on Scottish Independence (which will be their price as a coalition partner)
Brexit: Leave with nothing as fast as possible

Remain votes would head to LD and Green, and the SNP in Scotland, but would Leave votes go to the Tories or Brexit? With of course Lexiters voting Labour.

Johnson would have to believe that by presenting a straight Brexit ticket of either WA or No Deal then he could draw the Brexit vote - but would the EU allow the extension if those were the choices?

I would hope, albeit through my own confirmation-bias, that we'd end up with a Lib-Dem/Green/SNP coalition, remaining in the EU and potentially with Scottish Independence (although I don't know if that would happen if the rest of the UK stayed in the EU? Might be wise for them to leave the Union in case we do this all over again).

As I said, I'm looking further back than the last few elections so that wouldn't show in the Ashcroft polls.

Johnson is promising Brexit at all costs and is a bit of a personality cult. He'd pick up loads of votes from Farage.

OK, but I think the climate has changed a lot since nearly 3 years ago, but political parties seem to still make decisions based on 3 years ago.

If it is all about personality, then yep, I agree Johnson could get Farage voters, it'll buy time for the Conservatives.

And more chaos for everyone, yippee...

Umunna: "I also think I vastly underestimated the importance of having an infrastructure and existing relationships with voters,". Google translate: "Apparently the sun doesn't shine out of my arse and now I need a cuddle".

Why doesn’t he just go the whole hog and join the tories? He joined Labour as a career politician, fell out with his local party when he refused to be anything other than a Blairite, bunked off to the splitters, realised that after two months he might actually have fucked up, and is now in bed with the fence sitters. No wonder people are fucked off with politics. Resign and have a by-election, you useless piece of careerist shit.

Whenever I see Umunna in the news the word 'Foxtons' pops up in my head. I know several people who rate him highly, but personally I can't stand even half a minute of listening to his self-assured assertiveness.

More parties than George Best.

Wasteman.

Umunna probably hasn't won himself any admirers from his arguably amateur dithering. He should have known that setting up a new party is a big job, and the fact he didn't suggests he hasn't paid enough attention to the many foot soldiers who have worked hard to help him get to where he is today. That said, it was interesting hearing him on R4 this morning. He sounded more like he had found a political home, and was comfortable with his new position. Quite a change from his time in the Labour party under Corbyn.