EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

It is fucking sad isn't it? So much resentment. Cunts would set themselves on fire just to watch us all burn and most will wish the worst on them for it.

What an utter charlatan Ruth Lea is (and the others)

https://twitter.com/mpc_1968/status/1123664946133381122?s=21

In Northern Ireland the unionist parties are all brexit, the Republican ones are remain, the greens / alliance all remain and the socialist leave.

Local elections will be used to punish SF / DUP for blocking Stormont or will cause even more hardening due to brexit with UUP / SDLP losing to them. Not sure yet I can't find any polls

The turd that won't flush of ukip is also standing but they have few seats here. Labour doesn't stand at all. Conservatives do but also lol good luck very poor result last time.

^^

Not sure why you say that about the others? They seemed to be knowledgeable and reasonable.

The best thing about this discussion is that it took place at Portcullis House.

I think I'm reading the Owen Jones piece (at the top of the page) as: voting labour is the tactic for the softest likely brexit. Remainers are dreamers. Look at scary Nigel.

It's not convincing. The polls suggest it's the Conservatives that haemorrhaged votes on launch of the Brexit Party.

Ruth Lea

She's terrifying. I grew up in the countryside. She's the sheep-dip drinking farmer's mother who shoots children and cats and things that move.

Well, I haven't looked at the poll numbers since last year (once), but I thought the argument remains as it has been for a long time: Tories may haemorrhage more votes overall, but less so in critical seats, and Labour risk losing just enough to take their winning edge off in those seats they have to target.

That may be out of date, and polling is not a science, but that's as I understand it.

What electoral calculus do you feel is most likely to deliver a second referendum?

Good point. Not sure why I put “and the others” :)

Tory vote collapses, Brexiters soaked up by UKIP and Brexit, Remainers by TIG.

Labour vote collapses to a lesser extent, Brexiters soaked up by UKIP and Brexit, Remian votes going to Green's and Lib-Dems.

I think perceptions are that the parties stand for:
UKIP/Brexit - no deal, scorched earth Brexit
Tories - hard Brexit
Labour - soft Brexit (but in actual fact, identical to the Tory Brexit)
Lib-Dems/Greens/TIG - Referendum

Then it's a count, votes for Tory/Brexit/UKIP/Labour are taken as "a strong mandate for Leave".

Votes for Greens, Lib Dems and TIG as "a vote for a referendum".

I think we're likely to piss the time remaining until Oct 31st up the wall, then we'll need something to give the EU in exchange for another extension. That might be a referendum.

The result of the EU elections I suspect will effect that, although maybe not in the most obvious way. I think it will be a Tory government still, but possibly without May - which is another variable.

Possibly too many variables to call, really, but the results of the EU election will be seen as the nation voting on what it now wants.

I hope that Brexit + Extinction Rebellion media coverage will be a good driver towards Green voters. I'm certainly going to vote Green now. In the EUEs and any GE that pops up.

It's a shame as I know Helen Hayes, my MP, personally and think she is fantastic.

I cancelled my labour party DD yesterday.

Surely the only direct route to a 2nd vote is with May still in charge. A new Tory lead is bound to be pro hard Brexit. A new Tory leader will in all likely hood feel duty bound to hold a general election so they can get the majority to push through there brexit and then all bets are off, hopefully the brexit party splits the Tory vote and we end up with a Labour, SNP and Lib dem coalition with a second vote at the heart of the deal.

Weakening of the major parties drags this process out. I think time is the biggest ally to remaining.

How would the new tory leader be substantially different to May and why would their deal pass?

Caroline Lucas during the opposition debate on climate change yesterday - so focused and in command of the facts. Like an oasis amongst the lazy flippancy, ignorance and partisan pettiness.

Vote green!

Surely the only direct route to a 2nd vote is with May still in charge

I don't see how this is the case. There aren't the votes in the commons for a second referendum. May is very obviously opposed to a 2nd ref. This doesn't change without a general election.

Here's a geeky piece for those interested in the implications of today's local elections

https://electionsetc.com/2019/05/01/calculating-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-and-projected-house-of-commons-in-2019/

If the Tories, and the other Brexit parties get enough of a battering in the local and EU elections then they may decide to replace May with someone who is not married to Brexit. Problem is how- they can’t use 1922 as the members will put Boris in, and they can’t allow an election as they might lose. They need, somehow, to reduce their possible PM contenders to someone who can be re-elected, or failing that allow them back in directly after Corbyn spends four years soaking up the blame for pushing Brexit through. To do that they need to shed the nutters and try to project an air of competence- although that may well be impossible.

Ah, maybe project 'shed the nutters' has just started with Williamson. I await with interest which other spurious charges will be cooked up for all the others. :)

Replacement with Penny Mourdant significantly undermines that theory, unfortunately!

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/may/02/more-than-600000-eu-citizens-apply-uk-settled-status

Well, they have to get her into office first to construct a trap, don't they? :)

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/02/tory-labour-brexit-deal-may-corbyn

20% down, 80%-the new UK citizens to go.