EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Remainers will vote Labour anyway, what are they going to do- vote Tory? So fuck ‘em.

Got to deliver the Will Of The People for the gammons who’d otherwise vote UKIP or Tory.

Some odds from bookies. 1/14 on not leaving before 13/04/19 without a deal ought to reassure everyone. And 2/9 for today's vote to fail.

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Don't forget to celebrate tonight at 11pm,
when we DON'T leave the EU.

"Success has many fathers; failure is an orphan."

I'd be interested to know if there's a correlation between age and choosing fractional odds over decimal odds at the bookies.

Probably a correlation between fractional odds and people who voted leave too

insert trollface here.

I never bet on anything, didn't know there was an option to change it!

Any self-respecting mathematician would take an exact fraction over disgusting approximate decimals though

Benefits are capped, while the cost of literally everything around us continues to rise. But yeh, all I really want is a Royal Yacht because Obama said that Nelson Mandela and the Queen are the best.

What would happen if ukip got more seats, apart from their constituents suddenly realising how shit a party they are?

Tories dump DUP for a UKIP coalition, enabling them to pass demented legislation that shits on Ireland

Imagine

Why would anyone vote for UKIP when the Tories have effectively adopted their entire manifesto?

From the Tuckered Facebook page

How we got here

For the best part of a decade the furiously pro-European BBC, with its rampant left wing bias, gave a permanent platform to a fringe MEP called Nigel Farage for some unknown reason.

The walking dentist's leaflet would regularly leave Toad Hall to appear every Thursday night on Question Time, where he'd derail any debate, unchallenged, to discuss his pipe dream of the UK exiting the European Union.

When not co-hosting Question Time he could be seen standing outside pubs, where he'd smoke, down pints, and shout, in an effort to appeal to the working classes.

Failing that, he'd be clad in tweed watching dogs tear small foxes apart, or heading to Brussels on a private jet to not attend meetings.

Meanwhile, receding pig enthusiast and lipless soundbite spouter, David Cameron, fancied a change from ruining Britain and torturing its poor, so he thought he'd mix things up a bit by granting the stringless Thunderbird puppet Farage his wish, by turning him into a real boy.

You see, UKIP, led by Farage on a bi-monthly basis had voters. Voters that believed 'it was them brown people what dun it, what fucked Britain' not Cameron and his appalling band of sadistic bastards.

And although these voters weren't a threat seat-wise, on account of our backward system, David Cameron, like Gollum with a ring, or Boris Johnson with a leadership bid, really fucking wanted them.

So, with all the arrogance you'd expect from an old Etonion and former Bullingdon club member (initiation: burning a fifty pound note in front of a homeless person) he decided to kill two birds with one stone by holding Peoples Vote mark one, or a referendum on leaving the EU.

On the one hand he'd be able to heal a rift in his own party, Europe had always been like Kryptonite to the Tories, so surely knowing exactly how the public felt would put an end to all that infighting nonsense?

And on the other hand he'd be able to steal all of those precious UKIP votes which were being squandered on a ronsealed cunt.

Being from better stock, of course the great unwashed would listen to Cameron's warnings, why wouldn't they? They'd bought all of his bullshit so far about paying off debt, and hadn't rioted once, well once, but that was just to steal TVs, and the Tories had purchased impotent water cannons by this point. What could possible go wrong?

Well, all of it.

No one bothered to set a referendum threshold for example, so overnight the British public were divided practically 50/50, with one half being forever told they were the majority, correct, and that they deserved to be heard, whilst the rest of us were told to shut the fuck up and stop moaning.

The leave campaign was proven to be built on bullshit, bluster and the odd racist poster, but it didn't matter, the people had spoken and we must do as they say, even if they are fucking morons.

On the eve of the result, when Farage thought he'd lost by a narrow margin, he promised that this wouldn't be the end of it, that we'd keep voting till we left. The following morning he gloated of a victory without one shot being fired.

We're not allowed to say that though, it's anti-democratic and the majority have spoken, a sentiment echoed in every right wing shit rag that force fed bollocks to dick heads, and turned respected law lords into enemies of the people.

Cameron turned, hummed, and fucked off.

To be continued in 'Where we are now'

That’s why Batten recruited Yaxley-Lennon, to get the voters who salute a swastika before breakfast

What, all 100k of them?

The history of the far right in this country shows us that they can never gain an electoral foothold. We can’t be complacent, but they won’t be a factor in any upcoming general election.

on the subject of betting Oliver Letwin is 100/1 for next PM.

Very tempted given his efforts to resurrect his profile. He's a solid economic conservative (or "a typical rich person's tory" as my mate put it), reasonably brexity without being fucking rabid... so the question is could the party get behind him? I think so.

The one thing holding me back is his age. Do even Conservative party members want oldies anymore?

The far-right, or far-left, or even the new labour/con splitter party has very little chance under FPTP. So it is the same-old, same-old and not because the UK is necessarily more tolerant.

But the Far-Right have the media to whip up trouble. The state of the Sun and even the Daily Telegraph, I mean, who needs UKIP?

Do even Conservative party members want oldies anymore?

Are they even relevant in choosing a leader? Doesn't the party only propose one to them and they have to suck it up

Anyone else near paralysed with dread about this vote? Really struggling to concentrate on anything else, yet watching those around carry on seemingly oblivious to the magnitude of what is occurring. #doesthismakemeasnowflake?

There would appear to be a tacit agreement between all wings, factions and niches of the parliamentary Conservative party, that, following the slow motion car crash that was the ids leadership, the membership of the Tory party, (repotedly down to just +/-60k), will never again be trusted to choose the leader.
Given the control of the UK media exercised by Tory supporting and funding billionaires,
either of the two last standing candidates can be broken over the course of a weekend,
(hello Andrea Leadsom).
Possibly we may see the flatearth brexiteur vote split between the various flawed opportunists,
allowing a 'sensible'* candidate to emerge as the front runner.

Isn't Letwin a US citizen?

'sensible*'; not necessarily what You would classify as sensible.

Who's got guesses on "MV3" numbers?

It's not a meaningful vote in terms of section 13(4) of the Withdrawal Act, so it's not binding in that sense but whichever way it goes is going to be pretty conclusive for this particular deal.

I reckon a defeat by 41. Vote's after lunch. Let's have some wild speculation

My guess is that it's defeated 270 - 350

(EDIT 1.40pm: This prediction has not aged well in the last few hours coming up to the vote as I've just read that more and more MPs are getting on board with May. Ugh. Still think it will be defeated though, probably closer to a margin of 20 though.)

The history of the far right in this country shows us that they can never gain an electoral foothold. We can’t be complacent, but they won’t be a factor in any upcoming general election.

Not sure this is right. The two main parties have been losing their share of their vote to ‘other’ parties and ‘independents’. Looking at the last few GEs it’s quite likely this is a trend and coalition governments are highly likely.

I think (hope) UKIP are too far to the right now for coalition... but who knows.

Any self-respecting mathematician would take an exact fraction over disgusting approximate decimals though

Tell that my friend pi. He won't listen. He's an irrational sort of fellow. e's another one.

13.05 update.
Badger-trounced dimwit claims he has a reputation to lose

Via Led by Donkeys of course.
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1111610088723226624

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there's no doubt about it, he's a turd of turd hall.