EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Decent enough trolling by Varadkar:

“The ball is very much in London’s court. Internal British politics is really a matter for them. I just hope prime minister May is in a position to get any potential agreement through her cabinet and through her parliament,” said Varadkar.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/08/tory-brexiters-reject-deal-irish-backstop-exit-clause-steve-baker

Also:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/08/empire-fantasy-fuelling-tory-divisions-on-brexit

And I really don't know for how much longer people are going to take this set of 'ideas' seriously in the face of demonstrations of such ignorance.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/08/dominic-raab-dover-calais-brexit-uk-france

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/08/dominic-raab-britain-island-ignorance-brexit-secretary

First Karen Bradley and now Raab.

Ignorance about Europe only makes him seem more trustworthy to Brexiters.

Another Johnson withdraws:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/09/jo-johnson-quits-as-minister-over-theresa-mays-brexit-plan-boris

David Cameron calling a referendum to solve divisions within the Tories

https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1061235142004482048

Brilliant. That plan worked sooooooo well last time he tried it.

A vote to permaban Cameron from the UK could be the thing to unite the countries... ;)

It looks like the WA is now very close to being presented to the Cabinet, and then presumably to parliament. I don't think it will pass parliament, and as others have written about very well, it's then a question of what comes next.

That the EU would allow an extension of the A50 process for a referendum that doesn't have "remain" as an option is, I think, fantasy - what's in it for them? Or possibly more accurately, why on earth would they allow an extension for a referendum that had "no deal" as an option. It would be lunacy - and they're being admirably logical, unlike our bunch.

But that does leave the possibility of May trying to fit a fresh referendum into the time remaining, and if she does, with "no deal" or "TM's deal" as the only options, what is best to vote for?

My thinking here is that the unthinkable option would be the best - to vote for no-deal, and thus to engineer a situation in which we are teetering on the edge of the cliff, rocking in the breeze.

I don't think that May could survive that, and with the only deal on offer having been voted down, what option is left for the new government?

There is no way she could get legislation through Parliament for a referendum that had just her deal or no deal on the ballot paper, especially in the time available.

The DUP, ERG and Labour would support that ticket, I think - the DUP and ERG because no-deal is their preferred option, and Labour because they want the Tories to own the disaster.

Who would vote against, the Lib-Dems?

It would fail Labour’s six tests. Some Labour MPs might back it, but the leadership would whip the bulk of the party to oppose it in an attempt to force a General Election.

It's impossible to pass the six tests, so I think that's a red herring.

If Labour opposed to try to force a GE then it comes down to the Tories fearing Corbyn more than they fear leaving the EU and thus voting en-bloc, with the DUP potentially onside to try to reach no-deal, I would have thought?

Voting on what?

The deal (as we've been drop fed it) won't pass parliament.
A referendum on May's deal or no deal is the same vote. It won't pass parliament. Not just by labour.

I think the EU would accept an extension for a GE, btw. They would be mad not to with Eurosceptic parties across the continent. And presumably also because it would be the right thing to do.

Voting on what?

The deal (as we've been drop fed it) won't pass parliament.
A referendum on May's deal or no deal is the same vote. It won't pass parliament. Not just by labour.

I can see the appeal to MP's of absolving themselves of responsibility by pushing the choice to the people - especially once it becomes clear that the deal can't get through parliament.

Those who favour the deal will hope that their colleagues who oppose it can't, once it receives the "will of the people", and likely vice versa.

Otherwise we have the prospect of four months of staring at the iceberg as it gets closer and closer.

The DUP wouldn't support a referendum that could result in the backstop (again, as it's been hinted at). Additionally, there are the true Tory remainers. I can't imagine there are enough brexit supporting labour MPs to make up that gap. Maybe I'm wrong though.

I think the EU would accept an extension for a GE, btw. They would be mad not to with Eurosceptic parties across the continent. And presumably also because it would be the right thing to do.

I'm not so sure - neither of the parties that could win a GE in the UK would do anything different WRT Brexit. What would it profit the EU to allow a delay, if both parties are the same with regards to the EU relationship?

The DUP wouldn't support a referendum that could result in the backstop (again, as it's been hinted at). Additionally, there are the true Tory remainers. I can't imagine there are enough brexit supporting labour MPs to make up that gap. Maybe I'm wrong though.

It'd be referendum vs GE, would the DUP prefer to remain in an alliance with the government in power rather than accept the Irish sea border that would result from a Labour GE victory?

i.e. a referendum contains the possibility of no-deal, an election (if Corbyn won) would likely remove that, and any leverage the DUP had at the same time.

If the Tories won again then back to square one, of course.

What would it profit the EU to allow a delay, if both parties are the same with regards to the EU relationship?

I gave two reasons, although they're just my best guess.

It'd be referendum vs GE, would the DUP prefer to remain in an alliance with the government in power rather than accept the Irish sea border that would result from a Labour GE victory?

I'm not the DUP, but I would say absolutely no. They would not rather remain part of the government in the face of a sea border. Which is what the referendum risks Why would they support a referendum that threatens Northern Ireland's position in the UK? How could they?

Given that the UK powers-that-be have failed to successfully perform a single positive act with respect to Brexit in the last two years, it seems to me that the outcome that eventuates by inaction is the one most likely to come to pass.

I firmly suspect that we will leave with no deal, due to prevarication, squabbling, disinformation, arrogance and bloody mindedness.

Yay.

If only their dad had.

I think it's possible. But I think it would be a result of Theresa May denying parliament a say through democratic skulduggery. I still have some faith in both parliament and the EU.

I want to believe.

I firmly suspect that we will leave with no deal, due to prevarication, squabbling, disinformation, arrogance and bloody mindedness.

Despite my eternally sunny disposition and eternal optimism - stop laughing at the back there - I'm finding it increasingly difficult to imagine any other way it's going to pan out.

Happily I'll be out of the country on Brexit Day, so I'm busy working on my application for asylum in Gran Canaria.