EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Other people are unclear on Labour's policy too.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-25/labour-embraces-brexit-fudge-that-means-all-things-to-all-people?srnd=premium-europe

I don't like what Brexit has done to Dammit, it makes me sad :(

I hope they come up with something a bit more concrete after the conference, because I understand Olivers point that they need to be vague to allow grassroot voting, but it really gives the impression they are fence sitting or are just Brexiters (hi 3 line whip on article 50)

All this while their members and voters are remain mostly. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/29/labour-mps-fear-brexit-voters-unfounded-study

The swing/strategic voting crowd is hard to guess, maybe there's some research on that (ashcroft polls?)

I don’t really understand the labours obsession with these leave votes from the north / midlands, I really think there reading it wrong. My feeling is that the vast majority of the leave voters in these area weren’t labour voters, they were Tory / UKIP and the other key demographic, the none voter (as far as general elections go). These people are never going to be won over to the labour side and not to put too finer point on it who cares. It’s the reverse in my area, the local Tory mp eat her UKIP baby (by being batshit mental brexit hard case) at the last election and increased her majority to 15,000 plus. Labour hoovered up the 45% remain voters in the area and then Lib Dem after being second for a number of elections lost there deposit.

they need to be vague to allow grassroot voting

While being strategically vague at this point may be the best option, at some point Labour needs to argue clearly a case for remain, addressing these grass-root people's concern over their jobs, the NHS etc and communicate that it isn't immigrants, but austerity and tory's that are at the root of their problems. They need also to communicate the (self) interest of a small number of rich people in removing the checks and balances that will happen if we crash out of Europe and give people a whiff of chlorinated chicken

My feeling is that the vast majority of the leave voters in these area weren’t labour voters, they were Tory / UKIP and the other key demographic, the none voter (as far as general elections go).

Very few were Tory I'd suspect. There are a lot of long memories in these areas who remember the decimation of manufacturing and the pits and voting Tory is anathema to them.

Some would have been Labour who switched to UKIP. UKIP became the acceptable face of the Labour protest vote for those who would never vote Tory but felt that Labour had abandoned its working class roots.

Whether or not Labour is currently a viable party for a lot of these people is open to debate. Corbyn has struggled to win over a lot of them, things like this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45634379 make people think that the focus isn't really on the things that matter to them. If an about face on Brexit is added to that then those voters will be going elsewhere.

I’d hazard a guess that Labour base their messaging on very specific voter data and analysis, not feelings.

But, I think the numbers are on Labours side, and the Guardian link above seams to confirm this.

Its same position for my local Tory, she can ignore Labours increase of vote from 3000 to 18000 because she has a coalition for tories who's never vote labour and UKIPers.

They have to accept that they can't please all the people all the time.

Read the Guardian link about, the data appears to be there too.

But that data is from YouGov. Labour will have their own data, which they’ll have commissioned from a third party, which may be a) different and b) more comprehensive.

Then it becomes a matter of arithmetic latest figures show around 1.5 million votes that will go to the party with a clear remain position. How many UKIP/Labour floaters are there - and of course, which electoral ward are they in?

I don't like what Brexit has done to Dammit, it makes me sad :(

Glass half full: being Cassandra does make for an interesting perspective.

I read that a while ago and tried to find the underlying report on the Best for Britain (obviously a pro-EU group) website but couldn't find it anywhere.

The methodology looked strange, for some reason they were comparing the number of Labour remainers to the Labour majority and I couldn't understand why. Surely the important comparison was whether the number of Labour leave voters (who may vote elsewhere) was smaller than the majority.

It uses the example of Don Valley:

Her constituency voted leave by 68.6%, but the Labour remain vote in 2017 was, at 10,371, substantially larger than her 5,169 majority.

Labour received ~25k votes in 2017, is it saying that ~ 15k were Labour leave voters? I can't understand how you go from those figures to the seat being safe if Labour do an about turn on Brexit. It would only take a swing of ~ 2,500 to switch from Labour to lose the seat.

Under the headline on the BBC app: "Boris sets out 'better brexit plan'"

I'm sure it's just bad signal but that tickled me.

1 Attachment

^ Just having read about it, that's pretty much the size of it.

Super Canada

From the Tory 'grassroots':

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/28/theresa-may-tory-grassroots-brexit-tension-boils-over

From the Tory 'olds':

Not really, there's a 17-year-old who gets quoted.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksJAx_m4wew

Hm, maybe 'Brexit' isn't so bad, after all.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/28/food-supplier-suggests-vegetarian-dishes-in-case-of-no-deal-brexit

#therewillbeadequatefood

Nice idea, but... it really depends on how much human edible food that is grown in the UK is now given to animals.

Imported animal grade soymeal is not suitable, neither is sugerbeet leftovers etc. Peanuts don't grow here, most pulses don't grow here... so there are not so many high calorie/high protein options that grow here. I think wild lentils exist in the UK, but I don't think edible lentils are grown at large scale.

Corn is edible though once it is boiled in lime water and can be used to make flours etc.

Nettle soup for all!

We'll be back to peas & field beans for vegetable protein.
Just this week I tried fusilli made with pea flour.

Foreign minister Alan Duncan on Johnson, quite accurately:

He had enormous electoral appeal but sadly he’s spent it.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/28/boris-johnsons-super-canada-alternative-brexit-plan-rubbished

(Interestingly, with his calamitous decision to throw his lot in with the Brexiteers.)

Peas... indeed forgot about those :)

But hopefully there'll still be wheat. Cos I like peas but there are limits ;)

So corn flour, wheat, peas and mussels / razor clams. Yum...