EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

It was members rather than voters. Voters is a lot less clear cut.

In the 2016 referendum Labour voters made up four in every ten remainers, and two in ten leavers. That was before the unedifying spectacle of DD et al making a total fuckup of the process of course, but only the ideologically driven can now consider Brexit to be desirable.

I think the idea that brexit is the main reason that people would vote in a GE is a bit blinkered to be honest, for a lot of people (I'd hope, labour voters) they have bigger fish to fry than worrying about it. Universal credit, pensions, housing, employment, education, etc.

As I said, I think I've read a couple of studies about this, but I can't find them now (#classicInternetexcuse). They were probably reported on in Guardian articles. The main upshot was that Labour-voting 'Remain' supporters were significantly less likely not to vote Labour because of the party's stance on this (in large part because they had nowhere else to go (except, perhaps, in the very few constituencies where Labour are up against the Lib Dems)) than Tory voters would be to vote Tory in the same scenario, but also because they mainly, positively, supported Labour's programme for government.

There are gazillions of studies on whether people support 'Leave' or 'Remain' and how that has changed, but it seems far fewer on how that has affected actual voting.

Here's an article I just found, on the 2017 general election result (but can't remember seeing before)--obviously, things have moved on since then:

https://www.opinium.co.uk/labour-approach-brexit-reassure/

There's no date on it, so I don't know when it was published. I also don't know if Opinium is credible or some kind of sock puppet.

There's another article linked from this which likewise says what I've been saying:

https://www.opinium.co.uk/labour-approach-brexit-keep-options-open/

And how would they do this?

As I said, by extending the A50 process, or even by revoking A50 notification altogether (if the ECJ decided that the UK could just do this without the consent of all 27 other member states).

I think you've significantly misread the Labour vote, Oliver.

Nope. The main voters who were prepared to switch parties because of 'Brexit' were 'Leave' supporters, not 'Remain' supporters. Politics is a broad business, and there are lots of other things to care about than 'Brexit'. (Edit: As @n3il said. Not even Neils can agree. :) )

As you say, David Davis may well have been a significant factor in this changing.

I think the idea that brexit is the main reason that people would vote in a GE is a bit blinkered to be honest, for a lot of people (I'd hope, labour voters) they have bigger fish to fry than worrying about it. Universal credit, pensions, housing, employment, education, etc.

This is interesting: Brexit is a far, far bigger issue than anyone one of those - it impacts on all of them (and, of course, far more) and it's going to be permanent - or at least for the next 20 years or so, which in Politics is pretty much the same.

It transcends party - after all, May has proven that an administration may only last a few short years, whereas becoming a third country is rather more permanent.

There is no bigger fish.

Yes, I see that could be the case, but there are large parts of the country that has more pressing issues, where even managing till 2019 is a struggle, let alone the future of a UK outside the EU.

I take your point, but are any of the struggles which they are undergoing currently going to ease if we plunge into a deep recession as our manufacturing and financial services industries leave?

Anyway, this is academic - Corbyn could not beat May when he had the Remain vote (although she lost her majority).

If Corbyn comes out for leave (and I disagree with Oliver very strongly here) then the floating voters that Labour gained last time will be up for grabs.

If the election this November has say Jeremy Hunt or Hammond for the Tories with an A50 cancellation as a key part of their manifesto then Corbyn will lose again.

Can you stop using Hammond as a potential Tory leader, it’ll never happen.

Because the Tory base hate him?

I agree, but then I voted remain, and they voted leave!

If Corbyn comes out with better leave deal than may, he will win. He only needs to campaign to stay if the Tories campaign to stay.

They’ve just tried dull and competent (in a relative sense) and look how that worked out for them.

I am quite looking forward to the next Tory leadership contest, the back stabbing will end as they’ll be too busy stabbing each other in the stomach.

if a re-run of the referendum with a choice to remain on the ticket was that popular, then surely the lib-dems would be doing far better than they are?

The reason I cite Hammond is because he's a plausible "Remain" candidate - the other lunatics would not be credible, although Hunt is more likely than Hammond I agree.

This is very well observed, although I disagree on the conclusion about the second referendum: http://fedtrust.co.uk/brexit-salzburg-makes-a-peoples-vote-more-likely/

if a re-run of the referendum with a choice to remain on the ticket was that popular, then surely the lib-dems would be doing far better than they are?

There isn't time for a second referendum to make it's way from concept to legislation - the LibDems are pushing for that because it excuses them from taking an actual position that A50 should be withdrawn.

I keep seeing the Lib Dems situation being equated with the vote to remain; that the Lib Dems arent doing well because no one wants to cancel article 50.

The Lib Dems aren't doing well because they're fatally tainted by their performance in the coalition - they could promise every voter the moon on a fully-costed-stick, but they'd still be demolished. I'd imagine they're probably finished.

Very few people, you being in a small minority, will decide not to vote Labour because of them not opposing 'Brexit'.

my fb feed (which is an undeniable bubble) is also full of chat about this - people who feel like Dammit.

I think all those people that voted to leave 'as a protest' will still vote to leave, as their problems haven't been dealt with.
A vote to stay in is like a vote for the status quo, which is pretty shit.

After the slow burning disaster of ids as Tory Leader, the Parliamentary party are determined to never let a new Leader be determined by the (dwindling) party membership. They are the swivel-eyed loons derided by the pig abuser. They would almost certainly overwhelmingly vote for dePfeffel, especially in his 'Leave' plumage. This is why a mature Tory told Leadsom to withdraw in 2016.

^^It's pretty shit unless you've got an inkling of what Brexit means - in it's full-bore, hard-right, Mercer-family funded glory.

No NHS, no pensions, no workers rights, no environmental protections - just the market above all.

The current status, post 8 years of Austerity, will be the good old days - looked back on in rare moments of nostalgia as we stand around the upturned wheelie-bin, gnawing on a haunch of badger.

What people say aint what they do....

But yeah.

I reckon whoever the Tories put up has to be (insofar as possible) unencumbered by previous strong leave rhetoric, as such I reckon Hunt (saviour of the NHS) is quite likely.

Penny Mordaunt campaigned for Leave - but if that's sufficiently out of memory she might be put forward as well.

With Graham Greene on this:

MARTINS
Have you ever seen any of your victims?

HARRY LIME
You know, I never feel comfortable on these sort of things. Victims? Don't be melodramatic. Look down there. Tell me. Would you really feel any pity if one of those dots stopped moving forever? If I offered you twenty thousand pounds for every dot that stopped, would you really, old man, tell me to keep my money, or would you calculate how many dots you could afford to spare? Free of income tax, old man. Free of income tax - the only way you can save money nowadays.

Das Phantasiegebilde eines schmerzlosen Brexits, der Großbritannien in eine goldene Zukunft des globalen Handels und der neuen nationalen Unabhängigkeit führen würde - es ist endgültig in sich zusammengebrochen. Für May war es eine Demütigung mit Ansage.

Monatelang hatte die EU betont, dass die vier Grundfreiheiten des Binnenmarkts - der freie Verkehr von Geld, Waren, Personen und Gütern - unteilbar seien, man britisches "Rosinenpicken" nicht dulden werde und auf einer Lösung für die brisante irische Grenzfrage bestehe. May entschied sich, die EU-Position als Bluff zu deuten. Doch spätestens seit Salzburg ist zweierlei klar:

Die EU blufft nicht: Der Binnenmarkt ist ihr im Zweifel wichtiger als ein Austrittsdeal mit Großbritannien.
May hat die schlechteren Karten. Ein "No Deal"-Brexit würde die EU wirtschaftlich hart treffen, für Großbritannien wäre er eine Katastrophe. Schon deshalb ist es unwahrscheinlich, dass die EU in letzter Minute doch noch einknickt.

Gesundheit.