EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

https://news.sky.com/story/live-pm-takes-charge-of-brexit-and-sidelines-raab-11447341

WTFIGO

PM announces she is taking formal charge of Brexit talks
More power handed to May's top Brexit civil servant Olly Robbins
Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab sidelined
Raab and Robbins give evidence to Commons committee

What on earth

Well its the holidays innit, she doesnt want to have to start sorting those 150 cookbooks.
top procrastination.

Jeebus

If this was a TV show I'd love to watch is from a distance, but unfortunately here we are on "Brexit Island" :)

PM announces she is taking formal charge of Brexit talks

PM (self appointed bestest player in the team ) - " right I'm going in goal now "

something like that

"no I'LL take the penalty"

via GIPHY

I think todays news is interesting - Raab already sent to sit at the childrens table to do his colouring in whilst May takes charge of the negotiation with the EU.

This potentially sets us up for (indeed, makes likely) May resigning if she can't sign a withdrawal agreement later in the year - which she 100% won't be able to achieve given the extent to which she's boxed herself in with her red lines.

What happens when May quits in October with no withdrawal, and therefore no transition?

Raab already sent to sit at the childrens table to do his colouring in whilst May takes charge of the negotiation with the EU.

I wonder if someone at Private Eye is having to pull a night shift re-writing the St Theresa's Independent State Grammar School page(s).

I bet that's a lie.

Because rationing

Someone had a double ration of funny yesterday. ;)

You forgot to mention forin people stealing r jobs and r benefits.

Erm.... we already have food poverty. Can you see this getting any better?

Public sector pay awards announcement timed to send backbenchers home the their constituencies with a tawdry morsel of good news.

Autumn General Election;
Another May-led stilted campaign loses her thin majority,
causing a Labour/SNP/Green/PC coallition to take the right wing Press blame for no withdrawal deal/no trade deal?

SNP have repeatedly tried to form a positive coalition with Labour both north and south of the border and been rebuffed at every turn. Probably exactly because the press demonise the SNP so much as somehow undermining English sovereignty from their minority position...

With Corbyn's stance on that and the EU I think you'll see them run a chaotic minority government for a while before it falls apart and people literally start eating each other.

Another May-led stilted campaign loses her thin majority

May doesn't have a majority.

£1.5bn, some flags and a Bowler hat says she has a 'working' majority.

I don't understand this, either, but Labour have consistently, not just under Corbyn, pursued an anti-collaboration line (excepting a few MPs). Looking at other social democratic parties in Europe and their ever-dwindling shares of the vote under proportional representation, perhaps it's a strategy informed by that. Given what the Tories are doing to the electoral system, I doubt Labour will win under FPTP, either, but I imagine that for now it's in their interest to perpetuate the situation in which there are two main parties and every vote for other parties is eliminated in the race past the post, except in Scotland, Brighton, and Lib Dem constituencies. That may be bollocks, though.

I think the shattered remains of the Ed Milliband campaign remember being slaughtered by the rightwing press and DeCameron with the 'Vote Labour get Sturgeon' line,
to the extent that any cosying upto, let alone campaigning with, is now considered a 'live rail'
by the CorbynLabour party.
Timescale for TMays 2nd GE?
It has to be concluded before Paul Dacre is relieved of the DMails editorship on his 70th birthday, 14th November, which puts the GE date at no later than 8th November.
Given the 2016 GE campaign was just 6 weeks long, it would have to be announced in late September, which also has the advantage of quashing the (potentially positive) coverage of opposition parties Autumn conferences.

Yeah cos the SNP have gained popularity from the murdock press playing divide and conquer. Labour are fucked, as the labour heartlands voted leave. If bored look at the turnout percentages for elections and turnout for the referendum in the Labour heartlands.

Interesting hypothesis...

Did austerity cause Brexit? This paper shows that the rise of popular support
for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), as the single most important
correlate of the subsequent Leave vote in the 2016 European Union (EU) referendum,
along with broader measures of political dissatisfaction, are strongly
and causally associated with an individual’s or an area’s exposure to austerity
since 2010. In addition to exploiting data from the population of all
electoral contests in the UK since 2000, I leverage detailed individual level
panel data allowing me to exploit within-individual variation in exposure to
specific rules-based welfare reforms as well as broader measures of political
preferences. The results suggest that the EU referendum could have resulted
in a Remain victory had it not been for a range of austerity-induced welfare
reforms. These reforms activated existing economic grievances. Further, auxiliary
results suggest that the underlying economic grievances have broader
origins than what the current literature on Brexit suggests. Up until 2010,
the UK’s welfare state evened out growing income differences across the skill
divide through transfer payments. This pattern markedly stops from 2010
onwards as austerity started to bite

https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/381-2018_fetzer.pdf

https://twitter.com/bbaschuk/status/1021869965539008518

WTO is all sunlight uplands

That theory started coming out pretty quickly, though no doubt this is proper research.

1: Austerity [as my dad says, people won't complain much if there is plenty in the pot for all]
2: Make furrins scary [hordes of scary turkish muslims!]
3: NHS lies
4: Shit media

And still only gettting 52/48. Now more austerity ahead, so yay.