EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

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I am purely speculating here, but I think there could be a risk that once UK finds itself in the billy-no-mates WTO situation, none of the former trade partners would want to take the first step. Months would go by with them eyeing each other, gaging who would be the first to agree to something and on what terms.
Like when Canada recently got their deal rejected by EU because of some Wallonian regional leader, I don't remember China or Australia rushing to Canada's defence saying, "Oh don't worry about the EU, you can renegotiate your trade deals with us instead. Here's a 0% tariff on frozen poutine exports just to cheer you up buddy".

And companies would be dealing with it all, at once, on multiple fronts. It wouldn't be a flight operator only having to worry about the flying bit of Brexit.

They'd be dealing with new flight regulations. With new permits at all their destinations. With new customs regulations for stuff they're carrying. With new insurance rules, varying by country flying to / from. With the energy / fuel markets to get their fuel futures sorted. With new working regulations rules for their non uk pilots / crew (and their UK pilots / crew at the other end). With new immigration procedures for their customers on board.

And each of the providers for all that stuff, is also having to deal with their own massive list of change so doesn't have any guidelines for what the flight operator is meant to do...

I don't know anything about flying, so there's probably more. I can imagine the IT team that has to add new landing processes (whatever they are) to every single airport in the world into safety critical software...

"ooh, 3 months investigation, 3 months requirements, 6 months build, 3 months testing, 2 months parallel run. It'll be a lot harder right now, as the contractors for this piece of software are busy working at every single one of our competitors at the minute etc"

and that's only one little bit.

It just goes on and on, and none of it is decided. It's the main reason that I keep clinging to the fact that Brexit won't happen in any meaningful way.

If it does happen it’ll be a BEANO Brexit - Brexit Exists As Name Only.

quite an apt acronym because Mogg looks like the snide posh cunt from the comic:

Rees Mogg on White Paper - “This is the greatest vassalage since King John paid homage to Phillip II at Le Goulet in 1200. This White paper has not needed age to turn yellow. "

shut up wasteman.

I don't think it's a case of no one wanting to "take the first step". These things just take a lot of time and resources.

If your department for trade and FO have committed resources to one deal and it breaks down, they can't just do a mailshot with a Dropbox link to other countries.

@christianSpaceman - this is what I have totally baffles me about the proponents of a no deal. It seems glaringly obvious that after x yrs of legal and procedural integration there needs to be an interim period - which finger in the air guess I'd say would have to be a bare min of 5yrs.

@christianSpaceman - this is what I have totally baffles me about the proponents of a no deal. It seems glaringly obvious that after x yrs of legal and procedural integration there needs to be an interim period - which finger in the air guess I'd say would have to be a bare min of 5yrs.

It's not that baffling. They're either stupid, delusional or don't care. Or some unholy mixture of the three. Rees Mogg falls into the third category - his hedge fund now has a Dublin-based operation, so if/when it all goes utterly titsup he'll be fine.

@christianSpaceman - this is what I have totally baffles me about the proponents of a no deal.

All old and / or rich gits who could withstand the shock then feast on the scraps.

Will anybody actually read this whitepaper and be happy with it?

The counterpoint is none of these rules matter / are effected - you just carry on exactly as you do now and it'll all work.

My call is they can say what they want with no consequences. If it all goes through and works OK, after the event they'll say, "if we hadn't said we'd take no deal we wouldn't have got that one". If it's shit they'll say, "you told them we wouldn't take no deal so you gave away your bargaining position".

No.

But the reality of life is concessions are often everyone being equally unhappy.

When does it get released?

Already out.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/724982/The_future_relationship_between_the_United_Kingdom_and_the_European_Union_WEB_VERSION.pdf

And it really is a big bollocks of a whitepaper.

The counterpoint is none of these rules matter / are effected - you just carry on exactly as you do now and it'll all work.

I know this isn't your main point, but it won't work without sound agreement that the rules are what they are. Carrying on as before until agreement is reached (or compliance to the new rules is achieved) is not sufficient.

No one is going to fly their plane into Heathrow, for example, without cast iron knowledge that they're doing it legally. They'd be uninsured, they'd face huge liability in the face of incident.

Isn't there a legal precedent about "normal behaviour" or "expectations when entering a trade/supply of goods services"?

Something like: if you fly a plane into UK airspace it will be managed by the agreed iso standard for flying into and landing on a runway in a country adhering to these standards". Isn't there something like that in ip patent space?
I'm guessing it's this sort of wooly I'll thought out logic that's driving our negotiating points/the brexiteer mindset.

Cheers.

@christianSpaceman - that's a great layman's response.

I had one slightly awks conversation with a more senior guy in my office yesterday who was asking about BJ and said, "as long as the will of the people is carried out and you guys get the Brexit you voted for"... and he's fairly clued up on UK affairs.

more from Nick Cohen on the Beeb's Brexit coverage - https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2018/07/12/how-the-bbc-lost-the-plot-on-brexit/

I had one slightly awks conversation with a more senior guy in my office yesterday who was asking about BJ and said, "as long as the will of the people is carried out and you guys get the Brexit you voted for"... and he's fairly clued up on UK affairs.

The Brexit people voted for is impossible to deliver, if you take David Davis's "exact same benefits as now", and "no downside only a considerable upside" comments as descriptive of what people voted for.

Dominic Cummings was very clear on this when blogging about the Leave Campaign - there was a very clear strategy to never define what Brexit actually was, just to focus on the idea of Brexit. If theyd got caught up in detail they’d have lost, appealing to all potential leave voters without ever defining it was key to victory.

As we’re now seeing, there are many versions of Brexit and none will satisfy.

Indeed. And interestingly, an upshot of this with regard to a potential second referendum is that people may have more of an understanding of what they would be voting on. In that sense, it may even be (comparatively and ironically) an ideal situation for a referendum.

The dynamics of NATO meetings (with May looking forlornly/covetously at Trump)

matching the carpet, being trodden on etc.

Tory immigration dogwhistling / bs over new white paper already in swing

https://mobile.twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1017441138893115392