EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Wait, has anyone told David Davis about this? He'll sort it out.

I came across this tonight "In Brussels the three baskets are known as Advanced Cakism".

We'll have magical Cakism next, and the EU defining absolutely everything because our government dare not engage.

If Corbyn whips Labour to vote to remain in the customs union, there should be enough Tory rebels to defeat the government on that in the commons. I think there is a vote on such an amendment next week.

If Corbyn whips Labour to vote to remain in the customs union

Which he won't.

Depressing isn't it? This government is a nopposition's wet dream of opportunity, except that he is a leaver. It's hard to fathom the cruel coincidence (or in fact, confluence of social factors) that led to Corbyn getting the leadership at this point in history.

it’s a mess

Corbyn's not a Leaver. He is still in favour of 'remain and reform'. It is more this 'in between' position that frustrates those who want a straight-up political fight. My view remains that Labour have been playing this right. If they'd jumped on the issue and prioritised it, they'd be riven with division and nowhere in the polls by now.

It'll be very interesting what happens around the customs union vote.

Or they'd snap up remainers that refuse to vote Libdems / not alienate 70% of their membership...

Not staying in customs union is NI hard border is big massive problems...

I hope you are right Oliver. But my stock of hops and optimism is sorely depleted these days.

But my stock of hops and optimism is sorely depleted these days.

You don’t need hops if you aren’t drinking.

Indeed. A timely reminder, it's my first dry anniversary tomorrow.

By which I mean one year sober.

Well done. Keep it up.

Bloody drymoaners.

Oh, I'm certainly not optimistic. I was just saying I think they've managed it as well as they could have done. They've kept the emotional temperature down on an issue that divides both main parties (and @JWestland, it doesn't matter what percentage of Labour is for what--any division is fatal for them) while subtly adapting their policy and effectively saying no more than the inscrutable 'we respect the result'.

Labour's #1 priority is that they want there to be a general election soon, as they are confident (how justifiably I have no idea) that they'd beat the Tories. Their priority is not 'Brexit'--that's mainly a Tory problem. Corbyn does have to give the issue the occasional nod, but generally Labour's political priorities are different ones, namely the ones on which they hope to win the next election.

I mean, I doubt the Tories will rebel enough for May's government to fall, but I honestly can't see what Labour can do better at the moment. As above, I'm not optimistic on 'Brexit', though. I think the whole situation is so terminally confused that anyone making predictions on it at the moment is a fool.

May doesn't have a majority, which is a problem - but the DUP allow her to form a government.

However, the DUP are siding with the ERG, so she can't get anything approved that the EU will accept.

If she started down a path that the EU would accept then the ERG+DUP would rebel.

Which is why she does nothing - won't engage, just talks about "ambitious divergence" or whatever the latest bollocks was that the EU ruled out before the cabinet even went into the board room.

It's not impossible that May would keep this up forever , if she could - and it's still possible that she might try this.

However, this would lead to a "naked Brexit", where we totally dissolve our economic relationship with the rest of the world without anything to replace it, and stand there proudly, economic cock shrivelling in the icy wind's of international trade as they roar past.

So things will come to a head around (at a guess) June, just after May takes a pummelling in the local elections and it becomes 100% clear to everyone that she can't go on.

At which point I think we may have a general election featuring Corbyn campaigning on a Leave platform and Hammond on Remain, just to really boggle the mind.

The red-lines that Corbyn and McDonnell have set means option 3 or 4, if they win in June:

There are four options:

1. Revoke Article 50 & Remain
   
2. “Norway” - minimal economic impact, democratically outrageous
   
3. “Canada” - FTA - major economic hit
   
4. “WTO” ie cliff edge - catastrophic
   
   

But on the other hand, with a Labour government I think 4 is much less likely than with the Kremlins favourite, JRM.

Labour is going to have to shit or get off the pot when a GE comes. That's when the division will come.

I feel it's treating people like they are dumb by not taking a position, though Oliver may be right it's the best strategy. I think they are going to lose votes though, remainers often voted strategically last GE. That may not happen now.

Starmer's red lines are option 2 I think. But he's not the boss ATM.

by not taking a position

They *have * a position. It's not the sort of position, though, where they say 'either this or we hold our breath until we die'. It's not the sort of position that's completely unchangeable. As I said, they've kept the emotional temperature low on this one. It would be a huge mistake to fall into the Tory trap of claiming that it's a central issue--it's not, it's a silly nonsense and a solution looking for a problem. That's not to say there aren't significant problems with the EU--there are, only 'Brexit' (I always put this in quote marks now because it is not one single thing, and even if it were it would be impossible to say what it was) wouldn't solve any of them and, in fact, would make them worse.

(In a nutshell, the main problems I see is that Europe's larger countries in particular, Germany specifically in the worst way, have concentrated economic gain in fewer and fewer hands, impoverishing millions, reducing internal buying power and having to rely on exports and trade harmonisation to maintain some semblance of being functional, at the expense not only of aforementioned large swathes of their own populations, but also of smaller, poorer countries, e.g. in Southern Europe. All of this needs reform and there are reasons in it to generate 'Brexiters' of both the left and right.)

I don't think 'Brexit' will be decisive electoral issue. Linking public services and 'Brexit' may have worked with the £350m lie (although the various kinds of illegal electioneering that still haven't been post-mortemmed properly were probably more decisive), but I don't think that's working now--see Johnson's repeated increasingly desperate gambles to revive the issue in his hopeless attempts to surprise everyone. Had Labour portrayed itself as a 'remain' party in the last election, it would have lost badly, not because of taking a position on 'Brexit', but because it wouldn't have been able to talk about its own, more important concerns like public services enough. 'Brexit' would have sucked up the airtime and the attention, because it's divisive*, and they didn't fall into this trap.

* I personally think that 'for the many, not the few' is technically also divisive, but of course it is felt to be inclusive by, erm, many of the many.

Going to disagree with you on the position bit. (Not the other bits :) I know they can't position themselves as "remain" but it's been such a waffle on anything...

I think Keir Starmer's tests are ok. That at least is something concrete.

But there is a feeling from me labour just hopes it goes away.

Let's say the win the GE. I don't know really what they will want from the EU either. Unions urge them to stay in the single market. No clear word. Customs union...it's only been well over a year and no position. What will Corbyn do? I've no idea.

Can either the conservative or Labour avoid a split? Should they? Maybe a big move about of politicians is better.

Yes lots of things can be improved and I like labours return to proper labour. But ignoring the brexit elephant in the room won't work (I think) an economic crash is no cash...

Re the EU: waaay to many people voting neoliberal and xenophobic parties ATM. You are right about the economic disparities.

I'm leaving the UK this year. I don't see this ending well. I hope it does, but I don't see it.

Oh btw if you can get British citizenship now I think you can keep your German too. After Brexit no more :(

This: https://twitter.com/supermathskid/status/967737158726504449

Is just more Cakism - it's free movement for goods, services and money, but not people.

Why should a car radiator have rights that a human should not?

Obviously because we want the radiator made in a Polish factory, but we don't want the person who made it - but that's not inline with, or acceptable to, the EU and the indivisible Four Freedoms.

i.e. you can't have this:

Without FOM, which is something that Jezza is ruling out.

So it's all just meaningless noise.

Yep.