Will I die while cycling to work?

Not exactly. I worked out how many hours I expect to cycle in total ever from now on (12480) and then used the 0.42 figure to work out the expected number of cyclist deaths per 12480 hours of cycling, which was 0.0052416. Putting that into this poisson distribution calculator gives the probability of 1 or more deaths during those hours as 0.0052

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/poisson.aspx

75% of statistics are made up on the spot.

Fair enough, but my comment #22 still stands.

75% of statistics are made up on the spot.

No it's 93%

So the 0.42 deaths per million hours of cycling is not per individual but as a group of cyclists in the area concerned. You will then have to divide the 0.42 by the number of cyclists cycling at any one time to get the real percentage.

Fair enough, but my comment #22 still stands.

I don't think that's right, and 95.3% of statisticians agree with me.

Is there anyone left who believes that insight can still be gained from these numbers?

I predict that statistics will shortly be replaced by proverbs.

What's the probability of dying early from obesity, diabetes or heart disease should you not cycle to work but sit in a car/bus/train?

Or getting stabbed on the 36 bus through Peckham?

Anyhow I'm convinced i'm more likely to die on my birthday. That's actually statistically true (14%).

It's also statistically true that there's a 50% chance 2 people share a birthday on the same day in a room of 23 people, 99% in a room of 57 and 100% in a room of 367 people.

Statistics is just bollocks Maths.

Yes does it risk is it lower is Cycle Training does.

This is bollocks. In any given area, there's an infinitesimally small chance of being killed commuting. So, in that given area, kick someone under a bus and reduce your chances to zero.

Science fuck yeah

Does the risk of cycling is lower after recieving Cycle Training?

The risk of me finding you and inserting my track pump up your arse and out of your mouth increases every time you bang on about cycle training. And I say that as a friend and cycle trainer.

I may be wrong but I think [...] though I may be wrong. [...] I don't know who [...] or how [...] but I can only assume.

[...]

Statistics is just bollocks Maths.

qed

Win the lottery, quit your job, move to a warm part of France. Chance of dying whilst commuting 0% chance of dying in the arms of a hot French girl with big boobs.... no idea but I'll give it a shot.

This is exactly why I gave up cycling to work and started running instead as its much safer.

My tooth just fell out again from the car that hit me last week :(

Running is fucking scary at this time of year when the uneven pavements are covered by leaves. Even worse when it's wet.

I've been more worried about falling and cracking my skull than I am on a bike.

that's fine but let's see those stats for running deaths so we can make a stat based decision.

Look at it another way. As the probability of your death is 100%, then the probability of dying ... is 99.5%

I predict that statistics will shortly be replaced by proverbs.

When in doubt, do nothing.
(Stayin' in bed from now on)
na, nice day
'early to bed early to ride'

that's fine but let's see those stats for running deaths so we can make a stat based decision.

Stats on injuries to pedestrians like cycling both include intoxicated and non-intoxicated individuals, however walking while drunk makes up a much larger percentage of the data.

Not sure how you qualify out this variable.
However I asked the ambulance drivers if they pickedup many runners = I was the first one they could recall.

Not sure stats or expert opinion are needed tho.
Its simple physics that when cycling you are moving faster than when running and no better protected aside from a helmet.

Added to the fact pedestrians have a dedicated roadspace from other forms of traffic.

Statistics about road deaths can be expressed either as number of deaths per time spent or distance travelled and can give you completely different answers, depending on the calculation method.

For example, 'killed or seriously injured' (KSI) number often quoted includes anyone who is taken to hospital following a road collision, regardless of what injury, if any, they suffered. So that will tend to exaggerate the risks.

Having said that, if I seriously thought I would be killed if I went cycling then I wouldn't cycle, but I don't, so I do.

If you're concerned don't commute by bike and take public transport instead.

Also, due to being alive at some point you will die. Sorry about that.

Always amazes me some of the riders I see seeming to never bother looking over their shoulders before changing direction.

FTFY

Don't think headphones have anything to do with this. Wearing them or not doesn't seem to affect my behaviour.

Statistics about road deaths can be expressed either as number of deaths per time spent or distance travelled and can give you completely different answers, depending on the calculation method.

For example, 'killed or seriously injured' (KSI) number often quoted includes anyone who is taken to hospital following a road collision, regardless of what injury, if any, they suffered. So that will tend to exaggerate the risks.

Yes, there are a lot of different ways of measuring road danger (even more than you mention). See Bob Davis' latest post on the topic (and read his book, 'Death on the Streets', it's the book on this stuff).

your spirit will die long before your body does

An unusually balanced report on the main ITV News tonight

http://youtu.be/xPRUdLOTC2g

Itv says you're 30 times more likely to be injured as a cyclist than as a motorist

Statistics is just bollocks Maths.

No?

30 times sounds like per-mile stats (in which case they should also say that peds are more likely to be KSI than cyclists) and including motorway driving which is very safe per mile and irrelevant to a driving/cycling comparison.

It makes a nice impressive number though.