Robocars - Autonomous Drive, Self-driving, Driver-less cars

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2013/11/25/131125fa_fact_bilger

This is a typical long read New Yorker article, but it's probably the most in-depth article on Google's cars to date. And open to non-subscribers at the moment.

Cars are ownd for a multitude of reasons. See Top Gear for some examples . They won't change that

I suspect they are equally likely to disrupt local public transport systems. I am not sure that's a good thing.

Cars are ownd for a multitude of reasons. See Top Gear for some examples . They won't change that

I suspect they are equally likely to disrupt local public transport systems. I am not sure that's a good thing.

Emphasis on multitude. Top gear is as far removed from an indicator of the main reason of driving as there is. In the grand scheme of things, for most people, the car is transport from A - B. No one is saying Autocars are going to replace everything else at once.

Which answers your second comment. If driverless cars are all round better, faster, cheaper and more efficient transport system for everyone, not just those that can afford it. Would you not rather use that?

Cars are ownd for a multitude of reasons. See Top Gear for some examples . They won't change that

I suspect they are equally likely to disrupt local public transport systems. I am not sure that's a good thing.

Even a lot of business scenarios could be handled with self-driving vehicles. Given most delivery vehicles can already take a standard pallet, how about making medium sized deliveries using an automated system overnight, and only doing the last few miles on a timed schedule to minimise traffic impact and inconvenience to the business owner?

Commutes are easily handled.

Replacing taxis and minicabs is handled.

Shopping runs is handled.

The only failure for these vehicles will be the motorway runs, and the failure is battery capacity, etc. If you imagine this tech in a Tesla then you can soak up the business exec class and city to city journeys too.

This is going to rock the world, because even if you take out minicabs alone, you hit Ford sales to the tune of millions of vehicles globally. Start doing that in a few different scenarios and the costs of a car is going to rise significantly as the volume that makes them cheap is reduced.

Software, automation, efficiency... this is all going to eat the world.

The question isn't whether it's going to happen, the question is whether we as a society are prepared for it. There's going to be a time that most jobs are made irrelevant by technology, we've got to get past the idea that everyone must be employed, that we all should own a car, that we all should want to own things we don't need.

It's weird, but it's comparable to music. Who would believe, only 20 years ago, that people wouldn't want to own their music on CDs and LPs. Now people are surprised if you're not paying as you go for all the music in the world, at a tenner a month.

We're just going to see that happen to physical stuff.

The license that Google have for self-driving cars on public roads in California and a few other US states, is that an operator must be able to take over if necessary.

This is whilst the technology is developed and matured.

It is expected, that once maturity and safety can be proven, and the other legal issues resolved (liability), that the licence will be extended to non-operator vehicles within the test areas.

Until then, they can only run the non-operator versions of the cars on private roads, airfields, etc.

The aim is a fully automated, no operator necessary, electric vehicle.

But because people freak out about this stuff, they have to move slowly. It took PR exercises showing off the incredible tech, along with massive lobbying, to get to where they are. The recent announcements and new car announcement is just the next step in the PR to support the lobbying to move towards non-operator, electric vehicles.

Long-winded version of what I said. Hmmpf!

Long-winded version of what I said. Hmmpf!

Yeah, but edscoble can't read. Or comprehend. I'm not sure which.

Even a lot of business scenarios could be handled with self-driving vehicles.

They already are in factories and warehouses. I've been to a winery back home and watched the fully automatic loaders stack palettes of wine higher than humans can. They know exactly what the wine is and where it needs to go and will stop and route around it if anything gets in their way. They also know when they're almost flat and will automatically recharge themselves. All they need to do is take this outdoors..

Software, automation, efficiency... this is all going to eat the world.

The question isn't whether it's going to happen, the question is whether we as a society are prepared for it. There's going to be a time that most jobs are made irrelevant by technology, we've got to get past the idea that everyone must be employed, that we all should own a car, that we all should want to own things we don't need.

It's weird, but it's comparable to music. Who would believe, only 20 years ago, that people wouldn't want to own their music on CDs and LPs. Now people are surprised if you're not paying as you go for all the music in the world, at a tenner a month.

We're just going to see that happen to physical stuff.

Bill Gates was talking about just that recently:
http://bgr.com/2014/03/14/bill-gates-interview-robots/

“Software substitution, whether it’s for drivers or waiters or nurses… it’s progressing,” Gates said. “Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set… 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model.”

So it'll be the rich 1% doing all the work while the currently exploited 99% of us doing menial jobs will be partying in robo cars
Looking forward to this future

I think this is where we need to bring in Capital , the new version, and News from Nowhere.

No, software won't and can't replace every thing in the way that the Gates and other's suggest. It can't replace the shittier ,literally so, parts of nursing.

Parts of it I get, but it does seem to be a male , S calif, techie answer to the problem of road safety and transport. It assumes, for example suburban spawl .

And if we take out Ford then will we all be living in Dagenham or Detroit as they are now?

No-one is saying that no jobs will exist, but look at it this way... 300 years ago every person (ignore the top 1%) will have worked 7 days a week, 12-16 hours per day.

The industrial revolution brought that down to 5 days a week, 8-10 hours per day.

Post WW2 and the creation of a welfare state allowed choice in what work you did, and for some 10% to not be working.

Throughout this period, living standards and wealth increased.

What has happened in the last 40 years with technology, software and automation could easily allow us to get to a few days work per week, fewer hours per day, and a far greater % of the population not working at all... with increased living standards.

We're approaching a renaissance, we're getting to one of the few points in history in which the production and capabilities of countries exceeds consumption by such a degree that the available spare resource of the human attention and time can find another purpose.

We should be embracing the idea of this.

This enormous spare capacity is going to be available in the next 100 years. And if we don't have a good long plan for how to use it to benefit humankind (the arts, philosophy, science, culture, language, environment, etc)... then we risk, through fear of this future, enslaving the human race in absolutely pointless activities.

It's huge, and I'm optimistic about it.

So we'll all be spending time talking crap on forums (or microcosms as they'll be know in this future) instead of working....
...err like now then

Yeah, we're already feeling the effect of it... which is why most people can get away with sitting on forums, Facebook and Reddit all day.

Presently we're just not being honest enough, as a society, to say that we don't really need most of the adult populated to be sat in the office for 8 hours per day 5 days per week. So the vast majority of people just waste their time instead.

Waste is the right word. More vision and honesty and we could put this time and energy to use.

There are already shit tonnes of unsold cars wasting away all over the world as companies produce more than they can sell but don't want to reduce production, the satellite views of some of the car parks are ridiculous.

I notice that, not wanting to reduced the price, so they parked in old airfield and factory.

They already are in factories and warehouses. I've been to a winery back home and watched the fully automatic loaders stack palettes of wine higher than humans can. They know exactly what the wine is and where it needs to go and will stop and route around it if anything gets in their way. They also know when they're almost flat and will automatically recharge themselves. All they need to do is take this outdoors..

You should see the automation in car factories. Even low tech corvettes are built on a series of automated and computer controlled moving platforms. These platforms roll freely throughout the factory and deliver parts or partially constructed 'vettes to different stations and can be retasked almost instantly.

The car industry definitely understands the tech needed to bring this to the road. I'm sure most manufacturers are working on ways to be involved.

And on the jobs front - all I saw in this documentary on car manufacture was much better working conditions for the humans and a far less dangerous workplace. Can't be a bad thing?

So we'll all be spending time talking crap on forums (or microcosms as they'll be know in this future) instead of working....
...err like now then

The motherfucking renaissance!

You should see the automation in car factories. Even low tech corvettes are built on a series of automated and computer controlled moving platforms. These platforms roll freely throughout the factory and deliver parts or partially constructed 'vettes to different stations and can be retasked almost instantly.

The car industry definitely understands the tech needed to bring this to the road. I'm sure most manufacturers are working on ways to be involved.

And on the jobs front - all I saw in this documentary on car manufacture was much better working conditions for the humans and a far less dangerous workplace. Can't be a bad thing?

I've seen the auto welders and stuff in car manufacturing. They're usually fixed to a production line. I'd not seen the ones that move bits and pieces around like these little babies loaded with booze scootin' around (ok, basically predefined paths but still).

I think you have a very " Fordist " view of the history of work. Though I d love a world of useful work as opposed to useless toil.

Work and the idea of a working day or week has varied in history. It was industrialisation that introduced the idea of a working day and discipline at work. Those of who were'nt slave or bonded labour were not initially too keen on this.

Yes, its worth being optimistic- but we do have other challenges that perhaps software can't quite deal with yet. I refer you to my arse wiping example . Then there are things like the diminishing tax base that's still needed to pay for social services, health care , education and other public goods... . Though Google doesnt really get the idea of public goods

And for good measure , we have declining birth rates in industrial or more properly post industrial societies

Lets see what happens in Japan as well as Detroit and Stockton on Tees.

Now back to work....

I've seen the auto welders and stuff in car manufacturing. They're usually fixed to a production line. I'd not seen the ones that move bits and pieces around like these little babies loaded with booze scootin' around (ok, basically predefined paths but still).

As opposed to humans fixed to the production line......

I refer you to my arse wiping example .

Lets see what happens in Japan

As opposed to humans fixed to the production line......

I have no idea what you are talking about.

I took lots of video of the various functions of toilets in Japan many years ago. It was fascinating watching all the automations do their thing..

So it's you that made that website I like.