Probability - How does it work?!

The odds of winning the lottery if you do buy a ticket (and don't loose it)
for a £1 investment is 1 in 13,983,816

Now of course without a ticket my odds of winning are far lower
but my investment is nill so its actually a far better return

and as I can't visualise the difference in odds once they are over even 1 in 1000 it doesn't make any difference to my dreaming.

Have you just spent three hours working that out?

I reckon you'd get lost in Tesco's tommy.

Are you a creationist?

Theological noncognitivist.

I think it was Orwell who pointed out that buying lottery tickets is about buying the hope that you will win. The hope makes you feel better and can be worth paying for even if you never do win.

Yep, it's also why religion doesn't need to be true.

Speaking in tongues, I see.

No, I am genuinely ignostic, it took a Herculean effort to get there.

The odds of winning the lottery if you do buy a ticket (and don't loose it)
for a £1 investment is 1 in 13,983,816

Now of course without a ticket my odds of winning are far lower
but my investment is nill so its actually a far better return

and as I can't visualise the difference in odds once they are over even 1 in 1000 it doesn't make any difference to my dreaming.

Ha.

I like that line: "without a ticket my odds of winning are far lower".

: )

The expected value of the UK lottery is around £0.54 (on the basis of the most common payout profiles).

So if you buy two you are guaranteed to win!

I should write a book.

God willing, I'll get there soon.

Once you are fully noncognitivist things get a lot clearer, you will receive your membership card and an approved list of category errors - only then will you be able to go out into the world and deal with shit.

The odds of winning the lottery if you do buy a ticket (and don't loose it)
for a £1 investment is 1 in 13,983,816

Those odds are so high, things like diet and age probably play a large role in your likelihood of hitting the jackpot.

Srsly

A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities Classic Reprint: Amazon.co.uk: Marquis De Pierre Simon Laplace: Books

It's actually a great paper.

^ I'll have to read that. I'm sure it will transform my understanding ;)

Monty Hall making me sick, must stop thinking, need drink.

ah but as john cleese once said, it's not the despair that kills me it's the hope.

Is that from Clockwise? I like that film a lot.

Also, who was Monty Hall? He sounds like a Fast Show character.

Also, Tiswas on blinding form.

He was, what are the chances?

No really, what are they?

is that film 21 actaully any good
looks like good willing hunting but with kevin spacey instead of mork

^^but the probability of 100 heads in a row is the same as any other result.

Depends what you mean by that, while there is only a 1 in 2^100 chances of getting 100 heads, there are a lot more chances of getting 50 heads, so you're much, much more likely to get 50 heads than 100 heads.

Over 100 coin tosses, there are 2^100 possible distinct sequences, and they're all equally likely (ie, 1 in 2^100 chance of each).
However, some outcomes can be reached by more than one sequence, so they're more likely to occur.
For example, there is only one way to get either all 100 heads or all tails, so those outcomes are vanishingly unlikely (2^100 has something like 30 zeroes).
However, take the outcome 1 head and 99 tails ... there are 100 sequences that give you the outcome, so it's 100 times more likely to come up.
The outcome 50 heads and 50 tails can be accomplished so many ways, it's much more likely to occur: look up 100 choose 50.

Easiest way to work through this is to start with small numbers (<10) and write out the tree.

...yeah, what he said.

Depends what you mean by that, while there is only a 1 in 2^100 chances of getting 100 heads, there are a lot more chances of getting 50 heads, so you're much, much more likely to get 50 heads than 100 heads.

Ah, it's back, the problem !!

: )

As a unique sequence, 100 heads in a row is as likely as any other unique sequence (for instance 50 heads followed by 50 tails).

(There may be variations of 50 heads and 50 tails, but there are no variations of 100 heads).

Derren Brown did an example of this. Wait long enough and you'll get 10 heads in a row, 60 tails in a row, whatever...

... and a million monkeys with a million typewriters...

YouTube - Ricky Gervais Monkey Typewriter

Ah, it's back, the problem !!

: )

As a unique sequence, 100 heads in a row is as likely as any other unique sequence (for instance 50 heads followed by 50 tails).

(There may be variations of 50 heads and 50 tails, but there are no variations of 100 heads).

Yes indeedy