Swine flu

The best part about swine flu?

Like avian flu (but unlike spanish flu) young fit/healthy adults are the ones most at risk once infected. Those healthy immune systems go into overdrive and kill you off as it tries to clear the infection.

bad news for the healthy cyclists!

The virologists here are all wide eyed and twitchy with are heady combination of excitement and panic so I reckon its all going to get a bit

Last count for Mexico city from the BBC this morning was 103 dead and ~1600 potential infections.

Pretty impressive numbers for a health alert that has developed so quickly. More dead than avian flu managed in a much longer time, but more infections. However I bet that a fair proportion of those potential infections are people with colds, non-swine flu etc being admitted as a precaution. Again however there will be other cases that don't get reported as they don't go to a hospital/doctors.

but going simply on those numbers you are looking at a slightly higher than 6% mortality rate in the initial hot zone. That's pretty high but may attenuate as the virus spreads.

treatments:
Alan Johnson has suggested that the UK is well placed to weather a pandemic due to large stockpiles of treatments. I am going to assume that he is suggesting tamiflu and acyclovir.

acyclovir is one of the few anti-viral agents available and is used to attempt to clear the infection. As with avian flu, it has proved to be very effective with swine flu, yet.

Tamiflu, everyone gets all excited about this stuff and i know some labs that even went as far as trying to stockpile it during the bird flu freak out. It is supposed to prevent viral replication and infection progress (cell to cell) in a patient thus alleviating symptoms, preventing infection following exposure etc. But, again has been shown to be not particularly effective but that will be subject to change as the statistics on infection resolution and treatment regime improve and emerge from centres of infection.

These treatments aren't the wonder saviours that some would have the world believe but they aren't the waste of time that the doom sayers like to chat.

somebody mentioned that less developed countries will suffer the highest death rates. Whilst this is true developed nations would suffer the highest degress of social disruption during any severe disease outbreak due to a lack of experience of flux in the normal day to day running of things.

In conclusion: Its time to get extra smug about cycling and avoiding the viral incubators that is make up the public transport network.

I'm off to trawl survivalist forums for japes. Those twitching sphincters will probably be in their home built bunkers and cracking open the dehydrated ice cream by now.

Last count for Mexico city from the BBC this morning was 103 dead and ~1600 potential infections.

although, if ive been reading the reports correctly, only 20 of these deaths are actually CONFIRMED swine flu deaths, the rest of the 103 are simply suspected...

Hence the pre calculation paragraph concerning how the stats might be off.

I heard romford women are running scared...

Oh, excellent Questionable Content cameo

I heard romford women are running scared...

Oi! My Mrs is from Romford you cunty little prick!

Oi! My Mrs is from Romford you cunty little prick!

Who knew??

;)

Mr and Mrs Patient-Zero have arrived in the UK, confirmed up in Airdrie.

I am doing research by reading The Road.

Oi! My Mrs is from Romford you cunty little prick!

please tell me you didn't go there to pick her up? that place is fuking terrible!

Little side report on Al jazeera this morning from an anonymous doctor in Mexico:
Claims: The death rate is way higher then advertised but anything other then flu is being slapped on the death certificate.

Can't verify, but what the hell. we all love a good scare.

....le ...

anyone remember SARS?

yer that was jokes aswell...

Im glad about the young healthy thing-if its true I am hopping back on 20 a day in a click!

anyone remember SARS?

precisely!
this has got to be up there for the latest in along line of media generated hype,
reading the 'analysis' in Independent today I quote

"Medical authorities are particularly concerned that there seems to be at least three outbreaks of the virus in different parts of Mexico-the capital, Mexico city, San Luis Potosi in central Mexico and Mexicali- which suggests that the infection can spread easily." (Steve Connor, Science Editor, his hyphens btw)

read that carefully folks, Mexico city is 473 km from San luis Potosi, Mexicali is in er, Baja, a different country. Surely if these outbreaks are in geographically remote locations that suggests that the infection isnt spreading from place to place......

The fear is in the words, can mediation get any worse?

anyone remember SARS?

Is there any left on Ebay?

I'm certainly healthy - what do you reckon the 'young/not young' threshold is?*

*According to the wife I'm only at risk under the 1st criteria.

well again the source I have, which is doubtless similar to many others says:-

"seems to affect young and otherwise healthy people, rather than the usual risk groups of the very old and infirm"

"seems" -pretty definate there then, and "otherwise healthy" -being everyone who isnt currently ill, think were getting a clear picture of a definate catastophe,

your fucked

Is there any left on Ebay?

yeah but the carriage is really high.

well again the source I have, which is doubtless similar to many others says:-

"seems to affect young and otherwise healthy people, rather than the usual risk groups of the very old and infirm"

"seems" -pretty definate there then, and "otherwise healthy" -being everyone who isnt currently ill, think were getting a clear picture of a definate catastophe,

your fucked

this is the end, my friend. better start crossing things off the '10 things i must do before i die' list pretty soon.

precisely!
this has got to be up there for the latest in along line of media generated hype,
reading the 'analysis' in Independent today I quote

"Medical authorities are particularly concerned that there seems to be at least three outbreaks of the virus in different parts of Mexico-the capital, Mexico city, San Luis Potosi in central Mexico and Mexicali- which suggests that the infection can spread easily." (Steve Connor, Science Editor, his hyphens btw)

read that carefully folks, Mexico city is 473 km from San luis Potosi, Mexicali is in er, Baja, a different country. Surely if these outbreaks are in geographically remote locations that suggests that the infection isnt spreading from place to place......

The fear is in the words, can mediation get any worse?

You and the World Health Organisation are at odds over that little point of epidemiology.

read that carefully folks, Mexico city is 473 km from San luis Potosi, Mexicali is in er, Baja, a different country. Surely if these outbreaks are in geographically remote locations that suggests that the infection isnt spreading from place to place......

Are you being serious ?

Do you know how the spread of disease works ?

Hilarious - 'Breaking News' on Sky - Live from outside a hospital.....where nothing is happening

'We'll keep you up to date with developments'

Ha ha!

i'd be glad to read what the W.H.O. has to say, yes
would also be pleased to hear how exactly the spread of disease works too

There seems to be two views surfacing here.

1. It's just media hype, ignore it.
   
2. We are all going to die, it's the end of the world.
   
   

I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle. (but I am still going to buy that MadMax leather outfit which ever way it goes)

anyone remember SARS?

precisely!
this has got to be up there for the latest in along line of media generated hype

The last SARS outbreak could have easily become a pandemic, but was contained with fast action, quarantines, closing of schools and all the usual stuff - but it still managed to spread to 35 or so countries, infect 10,000 people and kill around 750 - not sure I would label this 'media generated hype' ?

Hilarious - 'Breaking News' on Sky - Live from outside a hospital.....where nothing is happening

'We'll keep you up to date with developments'

Ha ha!

Are they doing the report in WWII gas masks ?

;P