Cricket

If Afghanistan score more than 106 aussie fall behind England's nrr.
Afghanistan bowled well, and aussie look distinctly average. With a good PP Afghanistan are in with a sniff of an upset.

Amazing, thank you!

It's not just as simple as a target score for Aus to keep Afghanistan to. It also depends on whether Aus can bowl Afghanistan out or not.

It also depends on how many Sri Lanka get (and all of this is predicated on England beating Sri Lanka).

If we assume that England will win by 1 run then their NRR will go up by more if they do this in fewer overs, e.g.

"Sri Lanka score 100 in 20 overs, England score 101 in 12 overs" will result in a greater NRR increase for England than "Sri Lanka score 160 in 20 overs, England score 161 in 20 overs".

Conversely we could win and our NRR could drop, e.g. Sri Lanka are all out for 160 in 10 overs. England knock off 161 in 20 overs.

We'll know a bit more when the Aus v Afghanistan game is done. And we'll know exactly what needs to be done once the first team has batted in the Eng v SL game.

If Afghanistan are kept to 106 or below then we'll know what we need to do in the SL game.
If Afghanistan get to at least 107 then we'll just need to win tomorrow.

More info on NRR: https://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/page/429305.html

Very helpful, cheers

Right now England's NRR stats are (note that over decimals are number of balls not decimal part):
F: 397/52.4 = 7.538
A: 381/54.3 = 6.991
NRR = 7.538-6.991 = 0.547

Let's try a few scenarios:-

SL score 160 in 20ov, Eng 161 in 20ov:-
F: 558/72.4 = 7.679
A: 541/74.3 = 7.262
Final NRR = 0.417

Omitting the calcs (happy to supply them) we can do this for a variety of scenarios:-

SL score 160 in 20ov, Eng 161 in 10ov: Final NRR = 1.643
SL score 160 ao in 10ov, Eng 161 in 20ov: Final NRR = 0.417
SL score 160 ao in 10ov, Eng 161 in 10ov: Final NRR = 1.643
Eng score 200 in 20ov, SL 150 in 20 ov: Final NRR = 1.088
Eng score 200 in 20ov, SL 150 in 15 ov: Final NRR = 1.088

In each of these cases England have won but there's a huge variation in the NRR they end up with.

Do England win if their NRR ended up at -0.7? Australia currently on -0.304 so if they beat Afghanistan it feels unlikely they'd drop much below this?

All depends on how Afghanistan do.

Aus are so far:
F: 448 + 168 / 56.3 + 20 = 616 / 76.5 = 8.052
A: 494 / 60 = 8.233
Which gives them a current NRR of -0.181 but that doesn't count the Afg innings.

Aus have to win this game so we can ignore results where this doesn't happen. There are a bunch of things that could happen:

Afg bowled out for 120 in 15ov. Aus NRR will end on -0.304
Afg finish on 120 after 20ov. Aus NRR will end on 0.377
Afg bowled out for 167 in 15ov. Aus NRR will end on 0.377
Afg finish on 167 after 20ov. Aus NRR will end on -0.210

Oops, spreadsheet error, it wasn't using the max number of overs when bowling out a team...

Hold on...Fixed the above...

So, yes, if England beat SL their NRR can't go down, since it's currently on 0.547 it means Aus need to keep Afghanistan to a specific score.

Afg get 106 and Aus NRR will be 0.552, which is higher than England's.
Afg get 107 and Aus NRR will be 0.540, which is lower than England's.

So, yes, Aus need to keep Afghanistan to 106 or below.

Got there in the end...

106 looks highly achievable from here :)

Never run against a Maxwell throw.

😡

That's torn it. Still, they should get more than 106.

Presumably there would be NRR implications if Afghanistan scored 106 from the final ball of the 20th over vs 106 all out at the end of the 14th?

On the other hand...

Well that put the mockers on :-/

Ffs. Can everyone stop saying it’s achievable

They've absolutely thrown it away here.

Christ.

Holy crap

This is ridiculous.

Jeez. Edge for four, please. Something.

BTW, 106 doesn't guarantee England are fine with a win.

England's NRR can drop even if they win. The lowest England could theoretically go is 0.363 (SL score 0 off 20 overs, we take 20 overs to get that 1 run to win).

119 is the figure they're bandying around on the radio right now, although I calculate it as 122 (which would give Australia's NRR as 0.352, with 121 being 0.365).

They’re definitely not going to do it now. Definitely.

Shot