Blood on the streets

You know how every spring there are a spate of posts proclaiming "Noddergeddon!" due to the numbers of noobs and fairweather riders swelling the roads. Is it possible that this is Noddergeddon? Once you've had a few months of ca$h in your pocket from travel cards, or are still feeling good from not sitting in constant traffic jams, going back to those old ways is a bleak prospect. Are we seeing the first wave of inexperienced riders toughing it through their first dark, bleak winter?
That's very generalising though, and not reflected in the fatalities this month.