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@Nick.Earthloop
Not exactly. I worked out how many hours I expect to cycle in total ever from now on (12480) and then used the 0.42 figure to work out the expected number of cyclist deaths per 12480 hours of cycling, which was 0.0052416. Putting that into this poisson distribution calculator gives the probability of 1 or more deaths during those hours as 0.0052
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/poisson.aspx