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@Velocio
You've got 50 who say they'll take part. Usual drop-off rate is anywhere between 1/2 and 1/3 not turning up. So I'd say 30 will start.
I'd also say that even with the length this is psychologically easier than a similar distance in a straight line... you're always in a familiar environment not more than x miles from home.
I'd say of 30 starters, 20 finish, and the 10 that drop merely left on the last bit of the last loop as it swings geographically close to their home. Most will get that far and want to get to the very end.
It'll be a good ride. I can't make it, but I wish I could.