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@ewanmac
For instance, comparing the course last week (Witney 10, H10/181) and this week (Burford 25, U95/25). If I take all the winning times on record then the mean speed on the 10m course was 29.2mph (n=27) and 26.4mph on the 25 (n=13). That means that the winning speed was about 10% slower on the 25 than on the 10.
Applying that to me, my speed last week was 24.9mph so should be around 22.5mph this week. That gives a time of 1:06:40ish. That seems slow and either tells me that my hasty maths is wrong or that I am indeed slower than I'd hoped.