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@gbj_tester
I was thinking P(man dies year 1) x P(woman doesn't die year 1) should give the probability that she gets to the end of year one and he doesn't, and then sum for all years to give the overall probability, assuming that actuarial tables already account for the obvious precondition that somebody can't die twice, in which case I think Bayes is moot, but I'm rubbish at statistics and barely competent at probability.