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  • These things are rarely random. Probably crack propagation starting at the underside (where the tube is in tension) at the stress raiser caused by the edge of the lug

    +1
    The underside of the failiure looks to be right on the lug join. Also the butting of the tubing could very likely be around that area.

    Guessing though.

    Still a crying shame, whatever the cause.

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