US Politics

Does @Velocio or @hippy know about him? Banhammer time?

It's been mentioned ad nauseam but likelihood of an outcome is not the only factor that goes into odds set by bookmakers (see england are favourites for the world cup etc)

I can’t imagine this forum is much fun to troll - as stated previously, this one doesn’t really seem to have their heart in it. Very lacklustre performance. 3/10

And in the meantime, the ignore function is there to use

I knew yesterday but was being lazy... it only takes a few seconds to ban and purge but I always like when they waste considerably more effort than I do.

This is the Russian troll again... he hates me calling him that, but he's so deep into propaganda and fake news that he's voluntarily made himself a Russian troll. Nice bikes, but a bit of a berk.

And if you think the the odds are wrong you can now get 9/5 on Kamala winning.

Ah fair enough. Maybe we can all put him on ignore and he can keep shouting into the void

I can do that, and it's fun... but mostly I would like him to fuck the hell off.

Like... why stay at a party where everyone thinks you're a berk? Why stay when everyone is laughing at your ideas and thinks you're fairly stupid for thinking them? It's kinda humiliating for him, and it's uncomfortable to watch that, but I don't get why he doesn't just move elsewhere 🤷

I don’t think you end up with ideas like that through high levels of self-awareness and empathy.

I don’t think you end up with ideas like that through high levels of self-awareness and empathy.

You hit the nail on the head there.

FWIW I thought the thread was doing a good job of not rising to his attempted trolling.

Well, yeah. If Nate Silver (to pick reasonably educated source in short order) puts her chances at 46%, I should be staking 16% of my bankroll according to the Kelly Criterion (which is notoriously loose, but still). Those odds are great.

Just a shame about the size of my bankroll

Negative attention seeking usually ime

I don't bet, but I am tempted by Harris being undervalued. If anyone wants to cheer themselves up, Allan Lichtman is sticking with his Kamala prediction. Keep everything crossed.

I was very persuaded by Anthony Scaramucci's points on Trip USA the other day.

It's too close to call, but in convos at work when pressed I've said Harris.

52 million people have voted so far. And Trump is already saying there's cheating in Pennsylvania.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/early-vote-tracker-2024.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/oct/30/kamala-harris-donald-trump-joe-biden-us-election-news-updates#top-of-blog

Of course he is. He's been been rolling the pitch since 2015.

There is no outcome which doesn't "prove" fraud in his world.

230,000 Republican volunteers will be looking for fraud at polling stations. Every result which goes against Trump will be challenged in court. https://www.ft.com/content/7096a310-a97c-490a-84d6-d0e961d29bf1

This was mentioned in the Panorama documentary. 100s of lawyers prepared to fight any result against Trump.

Only way that Trump can lose is because it’s all rigged. Obviously,

There is no other plausible explanation.!

I can’t imagine this forum is much fun to troll - as stated previously, this one doesn’t really seem to have their heart in it. Very lacklustre performance. 3/10

I suspect that this is because it's the same bilge that we've had for the past ten or so years now - and as a mouthpiece for the Internet Research Agency et al they're not coming up with anything of their own, so it all fades into a sort of white noise of the internet, which is what Twitter now largely seems to be.

But they've clearly built their own identity on grievance and jealousy, with no empathy or sense of humanity, so fuck 'em. Self radicalisation seems to be the order of the day for a chunk of our society.

Don't knock trolling. It put Boris in No.10 and Trump in the White House. And made Laurence Fox into a star. And snaffled a free apartment for Stephen Yaxley-Lennon.

On the betting markets.

https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/30/polymarket-trump-election-crypto-wash-trading-researchers/

Founded in 2020 and backed by VCs including Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, Polymarket

And there we are.

Odds across the board at traditional bookies are all heavily skewed towards Trump

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election/winner

Isn’t that due to two main reasons? The first, that’s where the money is going and, second, when the popular vote is close the electoral college favours the Republicans.