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  • So far there is no evidence that elite troops are being moved out of the Donbas to fight the incursion. This is good because it means things are going to get a lot worse inside Russia. It also corroborates my theory that Putin cares more about Ukraine than he does about Russia.

  • This is good because it means things are going to get a lot worse inside Russia.

    Can you expand more on your view?

    Not to be contrarian, but could Ukraine’s forces hold the ground they’ve taken against Russia’s soldier tsunamis? They don’t seem to have loads of capacity to spare, not in men or in materiel. The US doesn’t want them going on the offensive inside Russia, and right now they’re justifying the incursion because Russia’s been launching bombers and missiles from Kursk, so they seem limited that way as well (although they seem more willing to push against those limits now).

    Hopefully it’s another miscalculation by the Kremlin but, given the increased frequency of attacks against small chunks of the eastern front, perhaps they believe they can break through before Ukraine does anything major inside Russia?

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