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If starmer doesn't deliver material goals and improvements to people in real terms, a lot of what's holding the ship together will wash over people v much like sunak saying inflation is at normal levels. this reliance on spreadsheet percentage improvement means little if the impression of people is they still are as screwed as when the tories are in. even if things stop getting worse statistically.
Nail on head, as ever.
There was a nice line I heard recently where someone described a political announcement where the chancellor of the time gleefully declared that GDP per capita had increased in line with their target, after which an audience member shouted up with "That's not my GDP!"
his personal opinion polls are actually an all time low for a party so far ahead
https://theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/22/keir-starmer-expected-to-make-it-to-no-10-despite-his-low-personal-popularity
a real question for labour, starmer even more so, and it has been since we saw this polling trend emerged, is what happens once this election goes through, an election which is destined to give them a parliament compasition similar to north korea.
he has probably the most polarised coalition of voters under a single party for some time. they're running on a largely, pro austerity platform focused on macro economic goals, anti immigration and hard on policing as a party who's voterbase is already split on these issues. this has alienated a lot of their core base and rewarded them with a larger appeal amongst a traditionally, politically conservative base even if not conservative in name. when the threat of the tories is gone he'll be left with divisions no disimilar to the current tory party about pleasing these factions. from polling we can see where their bread is buttered electorally (an even clearer picture post election).
If starmer doesn't deliver material goals and improvements to people in real terms, a lot of what's holding the ship together will wash over people v much like sunak saying inflation is at normal levels. this reliance on spreadsheet percentage improvement means little if the impression of people is they still are as screwed as when the tories are in. even if things stop getting worse statistically. his habbit of talking to two polarised groups completely differently will quickly catch up with him and he'll be forced to pick a side.
i think there is a misconception of people who will likely vote for labour and are not looking to be convinced, but are ultimately critical of his approach. it's percieved these people would prefer the tories or are cranky trots, but more often than not they're fearful it is creating an environment to further push the party right, or revitalise reactionary right wing parties as we see in europe. born out of managerial centerism practicing progressive realism.
i think any progressive person should be looking at this swing with relief and joy at the loss of the tories, but also skepticism at what labour has put on the line to achieve this. that electoral politics ma come around every 4-5 years but what happens between those votes, the pressure we can apply on parties during those votes is equally important. something conservatives know very well and will be doing. progressives need to practice the same scepticism for their own party. it's not just queers, teens, and muslim people having doubts, it's the ever fabled late 30-40 somethings who held their nose and voted labour post iraq invasion .