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  • Not me but that's not the point

    Two ways out of this war.

    1) Collapse of Putin and the Russian government.

    2) Withdrawal under a withdrawal agreement

    If it's the latter, it won't be like the Berlin Declaration. It will probably have to recognise Russia's sovereignty if they will sign it. I assume they will try to hang on to annexed land...one would assume Ukraine will not budge on this.

    In reality, I expect the assurances to be along the lines of "more more NATO aggression" and "no attacks in Russian soil". and that sort of meaningless bullshit. Something Outin can wave as a sign that he hasn't just had his ass handed to him.

  • Quite. There are two ways out of this war as far as I can see:

    1. Total defeat for Russia and regime change.
    2. Negotiated settlement with Russia being given some meaningless piffle Putin can wave around like a consolation goal in a 5-a-side tournament.

    Given the risks associated with Option 1, and the fact that the meaningless piffle associated with Option 2 would be just meaningless piffle, I think Option 2 is a more likely outcome. If the Russian people want to get ride of Putin, that's a matter for them. I think history suggests that regime change imposed from outside rarely ends well, much as I wish that wasn't the case.

  • regime change

    It's not just Putin. It's a mob run country which will find a replacement for Putin if needed.

    All those Russian billionaires are not interested in regime changes.

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