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if he didn't hold up his end of the deal,
Could easily be a mechanised artillery strike due south from Belarus into Kyiv.
By the time ambassadors are summoned to admonitory meetings in western capitals,
Ukraine would be in (administrative) chaos.The only guarantees Putin or any futher Russian leader is given is that the lines of ATACMs armed Himars along NATOs eastern border, from Finland to Ukraine, are not first strike, but any troop movements into the buffer zone, entirely in Russian and Belarus soil, will be neutralised.
mespilus
Very few people, but the guarantees wouldn't be valid if he didn't hold up his end of the deal, so it doesn't matter too much how much you trust him if it stops the war.