The fall of the Tory party

Is it really a punishment if it only lasts a few days?

jalapeno on pizza? no

On the basis that it is reported Truss did not vote this is about as much of a punishment as they could administer. Tricky for Truss if anyone not voting for the bill had the whip removed, even for a few days.

Pineapple?

Is it really a punishment if it only lasts a few days?

This administration certainly feels like punishment on all of us, so I'll say yes.

I should have add that I’d even forgotten The Commons had to do basic things like debate bills and vote on them in light of the chaos that has been going on for the past few weeks.

Yeah, my folks are part of the 20% who won't vote for anyone else. Still possible there will be a party split/resurgence of a Farage headbanger party to siphon off the more rabid 5(?)%

Approval rating don't translate into seats, but vote share does a bit more closely. A lot will depend on who is the next cab off the rank. Looking forward to the next lot of polls.

I was reading something by, I think, Rob Ford from Manchester University, where he was saying that the number of seats won under FPTP drops off a cliff somewhere in the mid-twenties. If the Tories do poll around 20% nationally, they will have significantly fewer MPs.

Also can’t help but think the same troubles the Tories have, Labour will have once in power.

A member of the 1922 Committee has told ITV News’ Paul Brand that the
“odds are against” Liz Truss surviving the day as prime minister.

On the basis that it is reported Truss did not vote

She did though. Her claim was that her card tap against the machine to register the vote didn't work, and given she was seen in the No lobby she's been added to the list of Noes: https://www.theyworkforyou.com/divisions/pw-2022-10-19-66-commons

Also, the list of pairings is yet to appear so many of the Tories that didn't vote may be relatively few.

Finally, given the volatility here, the whip may be removed from some MPs but will be quickly restored when there is another important vote that the Government must win.

There's 2 stories as to why Truss didn't vote. Either that her card didn't work or that she took the Chief Whip Morton to her office persuade her not to resign and she missed the vote.

https://twitter.com/carldinnen/status/1582808154735542272

This story did the rounds last night, but people are also saying she was seen in the division lobby, so that seems to hold more water.

Also can’t help but think the same troubles the Tories have, Labour will have once in power.

Because the party will have loads of people from all over the place politically?
Or they're as inept as the current mob in charge?
Or ?

The world economic state and inheriting the debt, fucked nhs etc etc

I think there is a lot of them that aren't fit for purpose and just riding the gravy train but aye they are gonna go into a bubbling cauldron off the bat. The only good thing is they can blame the tories and that we have to wait to see how they sort it out.

So far today, it looks like another 6 or 7 MPs have called for her to go. There's only one way this is heading.

There's only one way this is heading.

A long, drawn out miserable winter?

According to 'comedian' Matt Chorley on Twitter...

Tory MP texts: "It's happening. We are in the end game."

Why you need to manhandle People through a door to then use a swipe card anyway I don't know.

Just have them go individually through either door and have two machines for aye or noe in with a two observers to ensure no funny business. Four machines and two voting locations would speed the process.

The results still get released for the purposes of managing the parties and for public record but it will be the strength of argument and hopefully constituent opinion that wins the vote not an elbow drop and a half nelson?

to ensure no funny business

don't assume they don't wany any funny business

Could Nadine Dorris just fuck off as well please

Parliament should even if government doesn't.

She will once she realises Boris won't be back as a 15 minute speech in America is worth far more financially.

Why you need to manhandle People through a door to then use a swipe card anyway I don't know.

Because Parliament is full of anachronistic shite. So much of it just needs throwing away such as twats parading round in 15th century garb carrying ceremonial maces and staffs.

The electronic voting was introduced recently (2020) as part of the Covid stuff (the lobbies are barely big enough to hold everyone on big votes in normal times let alone if you had to maintain 2m social distancing). Generally the primary source of truth are the Teller's list/count of MPs that pass through lobbies - the electronic bit is there to help reduce any mistakes.

Simply put, the Government panicked last night when it didn't really need to, but if you know what the vote was actually about (see below) you can understand why they did. They won by 90 odd votes in the end and I doubt they physically strongarmed 45 MPs to go through the No lobby, although I'm sure there was a lot of non-physical coercion (which is what the Whip system is there for). It just shows how loose a grip on the situation the Conservative party have.

What isn't being well reported is that the vote wasn't simply about Fracking, the motion was worded in a way to give Labour control of Parliamentary order paper for the next day (today, Thursday), which would have meant they could have put many more things up for debate/vote.

Random quote from https://www.itv.com/news/2022-10-19/fracking-vote-described-as-confidence-vote-in-government-by-tory-whips:

“We cannot, under any circumstances, let the Labour Party take control of the order paper and put through their own legislation and whatever other bits of legislation they desire,” he said.

That's why there was a need for a three line whip against it.

It was pure politics by Labour. They framed the vote to be about Fracking as they knew that would be how it would be reported. But wording it as Labour did forced the Tories into making it a three-line whip vote against, but this made it look like a three-line whip vote against something that was in their own manifesto (the moratorium on Fracking). Labour never thought they'd actually win the vote as the Tories simply wouldn't allow Labour control of the order paper for the day.

It was hugely destabilising for individual MPs as they would now be seen as voting for Fracking and thus risking a load of shite from their constituents.

A more "on it" Tory press office would have filled the media with the line that it wasn't about Fracking but something like "Labour attempting to subvert process and pushing their own legislation through despite not being in power" but they were all too busy dealing with twelfty other crises to think straight.

The fact it generated such mayhem (three-line whip vote, not a three-line whip vote, whips resigning and then unresigning) is just a bonus.

(This info is probably already out of date as anything could have happened in the 15 minutes I've been typing...)