That Starmer fella...

I know mentioning 2017 is controversial to some people, but Labour got closer than a zero chance in hell of winning the 2017 GE, despite the torrent of smears and infighting

Off the back of people thinking they would oppose Brexit, no?

I'm honestly confused. All the news outlets say he banned frontbenchers from joining picket lines, did he not?

They did, and when that was rolled into the Tarry story it was intensely frustrating. Starmer asked front benchers not to go to picket lines so that the Tories wouldn't be able to frame the strikes as Labour strikes. But this wasn't a 'if you do this you'll be sacked' kind of rule, it was a 'don't paint a target on our backs here lads'. At least four of the shad cab attended pickets (Kate Osborne, Peter Kyle, and two others whose name I can't remember) and they were not fired, though they probably got a mild bollocking. But simply appearing at a picket is not the firing offence. That's what I mean when I say the picket isn't the problem; it is A problem but it's one of messaging and brand discipline, it's not sack-worthy.

Tarry was fired for promoting himself to Shadow Secretary of State for Transport on live TV in an unauthorised media appearance at which he invented Labour policy out of thin air.

I imagine Nandy is appearing at the picket line today at Starmer's request to show the difference.

I imagine Nandy is appearing at the picket line today at Starmer's request to show the difference.

"Nandy and members of Starmer’s team are understood to dispute whether she was given tacit permission to attend the picket line. Sources close to the Labour leader said the matter had not been resolved and shadow cabinet minsters were furious."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/01/bt-and-openreach-strike-lisa-nandy-visits-picket-line-in-wigan

Who can I follow on Twitter that might also be a bit more optimistic?

anyone who is into NFTs and Crypto

"Nandy and members of Starmer’s team are understood to dispute whether she was given tacit permission to attend the picket line. Sources close to the Labour leader said the matter had not been resolved and shadow cabinet minsters were furious."

Yeah I called that one wrong. I stand by the rest tho.

Any other leader, 20 points, etc etc

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Jesus

Not surprised the Tories have a decent poll bump for dumping an unpopular leader, but not great is it, particularly if labour can be portrayed as divided

And yet, 4 days ago, another poll had Labour 13 points ahead 🤷‍♂️

And this has an aggregated 9% lead https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

Absolutely could/should be better but it’s perhaps not as neck and neck as above suggests

I saw one a couple of days ago with labour 14 points ahead and meant to post it on here.

It's fine to post that one outlier poll which only has Labour one point ahead, but let's not pretend every other poll doesn't show their lead in double digits.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/04/keir-starmer-found-to-have-breached-mps-code-of-conduct-over-register-of-interests

Did we have the one where Starmer did an anti-semitism, and was criticised by The Jewish Chronicle?
https://www.thejc.com/news/politics/keir-starmer-accused-of-exploiting-holocaust-in-berlin-54wqcO7iSeBhESAJqrV3S3

Given Starmer’s zero tolerance on the matter, I expect him to sack himself pronto.

did an anti-semitis

Fair description of what he did?

Any other leader, 20 points, blah blah blah

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The only hope of a non-Tory future is an end to FPTP, regardless of who leads Labour.

Fair description of what he did?

He visited the Holocaust memorial in Berlin and used the footage in a video which did not reference the Holocaust in any way.

I don't think anyone accused him of antisemitism, just tastelessness. There's some justification for that charge.

That was my reading of it. Hence surprise (well not really) at this being described as having “done an anti-semitism”.

Labour 15% ahead in red wall seats:

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1557033977315315715

15%

You'd think that would be enough to stave off any "New Manager Bounce" from Truss (or Sunak)...

Yup. They might pull back in the short term but the impression I get is that the more people see of Truss, the less they like her, so I wouldn't expect it to last too long. If we're still level in say November then there's a prob, but the strategy is working for now.

And the thing about Truss being PM is, Starmer was elected to be the anti-Johnson; Truss is just Johnson Jnr. She has the same MO, she just isn't quite so good at it. I think Starmer will make mincemeat of her at PMQs

Something worth bearing in mind. We're only seeing Johnson having to prostrate himself before the ethics committee because Starmer got him to commit to lying about partygate in the HOC. That is a significant scalp. Truss won't forget that.

I think Starmer will make mincemeat of her at PMQs

Or he'll be good one week and misfire the next, as usual? But in the grand scheme of things, that's probably ok. The audience for PMQs is very small and those who might be affected to vote one way or the other is a miniscule number.

Truss is just Johnson Jnr. She has the same MO, she just isn't quite so good at it.

And this is broadly fair and maybe a good sign.

I think this is pretty spot on. Although it's gonna be a long couple of years until the next GE (assuming it isn't earlier), I do think there's more chance of Labour winning with Truss in charge than Sunak.

Labour have finally broken cover to address the cost of living crisis. Let’s review their big policy announcement:

Bring pre-payment meter tariffs in line with direct debit tariffs

Oh, and before you worry that they’ve been too bold on this one, they’re proposing to compensate the energy companies for the inconvenience of ending this predatory business practice.

Now, to be fair to them, this is just “one strand” of a package of policies, so maybe they’ve got some stuff up their sleeve that might actually constitute policy relevant to the scale of the crisis we are facing. It’s possible they are just really shit at political comms and have decided to put the small stuff first rather than making a splash with the big ticket items. Let’s hope so because we’re completely fucked otherwise.

So weak compared to the proposals that Gordan Brown is making, I like the fact Truss now uses Gordan Brown economics as a slur, really shows her true colours