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Yeah I would have expected a soft feeling is what I mean! Never equated the chain stay with the spider but you definitely have a point. Probably not the flex (and not at that point of the stay surely?) because this didn’t happen when climbing, but when going straight..
Also have approx 2-4mm clearance on the mudguards so should have been quite alright on that front I would have thought! Either that or the rubber straps holding them to the chainstay should have popped off..
Not necessarily, pedalling can tighten the cog against the hub leaving it some space to undo until it hits the lockring and jams again and it can tighten itself thoroughly enough against both the hub and lockring that the movement isn't immediate. Like, it'll jam so tight against the hub that you can get a bit of resisting the pedals before it breaks free and then conversely it jams so tight against the lockright that you get a bit of pedalling before it breaks free.
I don't know that this fits with what you are describing though, when it's happened to me it's a rather soft feeling, what you are describing sounds harsher.
Looking at the photos you've posted 2 things strike me,
I don't think this is very likely btw as the paint loss doesn't seem bad enough for this.