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You’d imagine

This is why I think he might lose today

is this really true? that would be so sweet, but don’t you think the prospect of this would mean more shenanigans like prorogue of parliament

By this time Teresa May had reached the number needed to survive. Johnson is at half that number confirmed to be voting for him so far.

not to be too lily livered but i worry about poking the bear-

This

He has broken the ministerial code of conduct. Absolute fact.

He must resign.

Not one of the the clear successors is preferable - but he has to go if the system is not entirely broken. One has to hope that it is not, regardless of politics.

Why though? Everyone is expecting a big loss on the 23rd (Tories included). Why would the views of many change just because it's actually happened?

I wonder how important Johnsons total lack of shame is? It may be seen that he has no alternative but to resign due to his conduct, but if he doesn't care - it doesn't matter.

They've been floating May/June 2023 for the next election - if he wins the vote the Tories have lost their ability to get someone new in before the GE

I don't know. Wouldn't you react to something actually being confirmed rather than just being speculation in polls?

Maybe - I just think that the acceptance of a loss on the 23rd seems so widespread that not many will be surprised, and if asked to vote now you have to price it in now.

Not saying no one would be swayed, just don’t buy that it will be a big game changer - most will surely have decided already

Those Red Wall constitutents would be very vocal I'd imagine. Maybe that would be the kick up the arse for more of those Red Wall MP's to stick the knife in

Or he loses the vote but then refuses to recognise it / “my leadership is being stolen” narrative…

“my leadership is being stolen” narrative…

I wouldn't bet against this bit...

”Secret tory staffer” in the Guardian. Basically says the new Tory intake are especially thick https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/06/tory-mps-boris-johnson-ministers-pm

That deathgate tweet posted a few pages back was just bullshit wasn't it

If his opponents let him off this hook in order to humiliate him more greatly another day, that would be a major strategic mistake because there’s a very good chance that other day may never come. Right now they have the inertia they need, and it’s taken this long to get it; any future attempt will require more inertia, and in turn it will be even harder to build. Johnson will make sure of it. They need to throw everything they have at him now.

Right now they have the inertia they need

Momentum?

thanks Nadine, now I'm pro Jeremy Hunt just to see the look on your face.
So mixed up inside!

nothing is gonna happen, he is safe, if there is a GE they will get a bigger majority this time

That deathgate tweet posted a few pages back was just bullshit wasn't it

Almost as if the guy has a film coming out.

Johnson is highly likely to end up with a 10 plus day suspension

Who enforces this? Is it another one where Johnson can just say I've had a good think and I'm sorry and leave it at that?

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if there is a GE they will get a bigger majority this time

What do you base this on?