Russian invasion of Ukraine

Reality is stranger than fiction

Before he was elected, Zelensky starred in a hit TV show where he
played a teacher who accidentally gets elected President. Now he's an
IRL wartime leader and Putin's "target number one."

https://twitter.com/VeraMBergen/status/1498814410911006723

That subreddit has been a dump for a looong time. These are presumably just the usual Trumpers showing their true colours.

Sometimes I do think it's plausible that this whole situation is some massive wind-up

drøn

What's a good source of updates on current events?

1 Attachment

https://samf.substack.com/p/russias-plan-c

But Russian tactics don’t really include resupply they set off with enough fuel food etc. You often see tanks with fuel drums on the back BTR apc have special tanks in the rear doors.Then when they are spent the entire unit is replaced with fresh troops.

Good report, but I didn't quite get your conclusion from this. Are you saying that despite losses Russia's advance is more or less proceeding according to plan? That the risk of each unit running out of men and fuel has already been priced in so to speak?

This has some interesting, but depressing, points on the speed of Russia's advance: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-90-heavy-fires?s=r

Warning: nsfw and very sad. Civilian car got shot up.
https://twitter.com/TruthsUnchained/status/1498765829382545418

I'm almost in tears. I hope NATO intervenes and sends our "peacekeepers"...

That's NSFL. Absolutely gut wrenching.

current UK polling on intervention

1 Attachment

The risk of running out of fuel is priced in, in that each unit is only expected to do X before running out of fuel/food/breaking down. Whoever did the pricing underestimated the level of resistance so they aren’t replacing them fast enough.
You only get replaced if you are doing well, reserves are only sent to successful attacks . If as a commander your attack bogs down you will be left until you can be sent to Siberia.

heh

https://imgur.com/a/c7F4fxu

Had a quick chat with somebody in Moscow earlier.

Anecdata with sample size of one middle class Russian warning.

In his opinion, there is a thunderously anti war mood in Moscow at the moment.

Anecdata

Love that!

The situation in Mariupol sounds horrendous.

Saw this on Reddit, so insane I thought I’d share it. (Nothing grisly) no idea if it’s real

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t4xnn9/a_small_russian_unit_that_fully_surrendered_to/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Do those 29% understand what would happen if we did that lol.

Interesting. If I understood that right they're mostly ukranians from (Russian Occupied) Donetsk region and forced conscripts.

Most of them reckon they were called up for 3-5 days of military service and then tricked into going to war. No idea if it’s true or they’re just repeating the excuse down the line.

We haven’t seen many front echelon troops captured or T72/90 and BMP3 vehicles destroyed. Or indeed seen much of them at all. Lots of unarmoured stuff, some recce vehicles and some airportable apcs.
Could be you don’t hang around to do a selfie with a tank.

A "US Defence source" was briefing this morning that some of the abandoned vehicles found had their fuel tanks deliberately holed by the occupants so they couldn't make it to the action and were then abandoned.

Misleading clickbait.

It wasn't aimed at the BBC. She was just expressing her feelings towards the Russians soldiers and the like. You need to see the whole interview, that has been cut short and I'm sure people will take it out of context.

Russian cracking down and blocking/banning internal print media and websites and apparently Youtube domains hosting some content (not video?) just went down too.

Also nice bit of re-education for the kids

Russian MoD just admitted there are casualties on their side for the first time "498 soldiers killed, 1597 wounded in Ukraine"

Has anyone seen analysis on whether what is happening at the operational and tactical level suggests a change in the strategy?

It looks like the attack on Kiev has calmed while the attacks on Kharkiv and Mairupol (amongst others) have intensified.

Could the strategy have pivoted from maximalist toppling the Ukrainian government, back to encircling and annexing Donbas and Luhansk and cementing control of Crimea, as part of a pivot towards a negotiated settlement that leaves a rump Ukraine? If he could achieve that goal, surely Putin would chalk that up as a win?