Russian invasion of Ukraine

I think there is an unspoken bias in the media I have seen, mostly British media.

That bias is; Russia is this great big millitary machine that will crush the Ukraine, all they need to do is throw in a few more tanks, slightly better troops which apparently they have an unlimited supply of, etc.

I am not convinced this is the case. My understanding is their defence budget is about the same as ours yet their forces are 8 or 10 time larger. Jam spread pretty thin, it's going to cost to feed, cloth, house and equip all these people, so not much left for state of the art weapons systems, which are eye wateringly expensive, £Billion+ warships etc.

So up against a highly motivated, fighting for their homeland nation of 45million with (possibly) access to all sorts of weapon systems for free from a lot of diffrent places sudenly it isn't such a one sided fight.

Which is why I believe the Russian tanks haven't rolled into the main square of pretty much anywhere important.....yet.

So in a very roundabout answer to Carsons point, no it isn't cynical to arm the Ukranians, they might win or at least not loose.

@carson You suggested that: 'it suits the West for Ukraine to suffer - the more grotesque and public the better.' and 'having Russia bogged down in a ghastly, messy war of occupation is perhaps of far more practical use to us, isn't it?'

A Ukrainian military victory would surely be the most acute political defeat for Putin, no? Even worse than a drawn out, bloody war that eventually leads to a semi-permanent Russian occupation. I don't see a conflict of interest between the west and Ukraine, unless you're suggesting that swift capitulation, a no-doubt bloody purge of their existing government and military and a new Putin-esque puppet regime without democratic legitimacy is their best option?

Ukraine's values are aligned with ours but they are first and foremost fighting for their own territory and sovereignty. Seems entirely right that those at the UN give the guy a standing ovation, and surely all the support he asks for, short of that which throws NATO members into direct conflict with Russia.

We now see that the Russian army is in a bad state really - all those years of military budget stolen and split by the corrupt military underbelly... serves them well.

Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/01/vladimir-putin-sick-covid-russia-ukraine-invasion-illness/

fingers crossed

There is not going to be a decisive win for anybody. The best Ukrainian heroes will be able to do is inflict as much damage as possible. The guerrilla war will continue and Russia will just drain their resources. Nobody wins in a war.

In the end Russia has just created another generation of people that hates their guts. It it not only in Ukraine either, they have now woken up the youth in all the border states. The last generation that experienced WWII was just dying out and there was a chance the younger generation would not have held such a grudge.

There are lot of russians in my home country and they rightfully fearing for anti-russian sentiments that had mellowed over the years. Unfortunately I see very little prospects for them to live here now. The decision to wage war may not be their fault, but the fact is many of them do silently support Putin. It works to their great disadvantage that they do not condone Putin's war. The sad thing is you see local russians actually voicing their pro-war opinions publicly on social media.

At this stage you can no longer blame the russian media and propaganda. The narrative of victimhood is strong, but we can not change their minds just by hugging.

I think this has moved beyond being a Proxy war where you have 3 categories of state Them,Us and Other and you don’t really care about what happens to Other. Ukraine since 2014 has moved from being Them to Other and is now seen as Us and we have both a political and emotional desire to help them.

One more thing Brits and westerners are not familiar with is - Russian work ethic.

It's kind of "couldn't care less - just doing what i've been told - not really care about the outcome" kind of attitude.

Not speaking for all of them but this kind of attitude is way more prominent in post soviet countries and Russia.

What's a good source of updates on current events?
Live feeed rather than insights/background.

I've seen similar things from colleagues in the past, particularly those who'd grown up in communist era Eastern Europe.

The thing is, armies fight better when they have good morale. They've either been lied to a bit ("we're going to liberate Ukraine from evil people, the people will cheer us on") or a lot ("you're off to Crimea for a training exercise") and there's soldiers being captured with 1950s era kit, rations 5 years out of date etc. With limited fuel and food, a well motivated defence force with up to date weapons, the average (i.e. not elite) Russian soldier can't be terribly happy with life at the best of times; this must be even worse.

Agree on everyone losing, but I think this war has made two things clear: Ukraine belongs in Europe and Russia is as full of lies as we always thought. There's no room for if's and but's when it comes to Russia's intentions anymore, no room for half baked explanations, etc. Everything they now communicate will be seen as self-serving propaganda.

Ukraine is now seen as part of Europe. The support from the the EU and other western states is rock solid.

I hope this is a turning point for the better. It won't come cheap though.

The BBC is absolutely rubbish (not helpful comment).

CNN has a good live feed

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-02-22/index.html

Also followed those accounts on Twitter - but some times they share fake news as well / info that's been unconfirmed just for sake of spreading the good news prematurely.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv
https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr
https://twitter.com/i_army_org

There are lot of russians in my home country and they rightfully fearing for anti-russian sentiments that had mellowed over the years. Unfortunately I see very little prospects for them to live here now.

What country? Even those that 'silently' or on social media support Putin should not be forced from their homes. So far the messaging from Ukraine is to target Putin and not Russian people. Inevitable that there will be anti-Russian backlash especially where it already exists, but I hope for better.

What are the Russian people meant to do, vote him out?

Not half baked at all.

The west, mainly the US, trapped the Soviet Union in a long term war in Afghanistan by sending arms. That played a significant part in the eventual crumbling of the regime. If this one goes long, it could certainly bring Putin down and potentially get rid of Russia as an obstacle to US / western power in the region.

Is it in the interests of the Ukranian people? Most likely not as it will prolong the hell of war that they have to endure, the suffering, the death, the disruption, the fracture of civil society. It will also make the Russians up the ante. Instead of sending infantry in, they will feel the need to bomb every town flat first.

From the point of view of the average Ukranian civilian, the quicker it was over, the better. For an ordinary civilian, being on the losing side in a quick war is not necessarily a terrible outcome, but being in a never-ending war certainly is.

I doubt the average Russian will see much backlash other than constant VERBAL/WRITTEN attacks in the media about the government. There's definitely a case to answer as to how the "average Russian" has allowed their country to go so far in this direction without any real resistance from the majority. Unfortunately, like with Brexit, your government represents you on the world stage and you have to live with that.

A friend here is Russian and although she didn't vote for Putin, she didn't vote against him ("what would one vote do" etc) but said that in hindsight she accepts that she and people like her have some responsibility for this, albeit many steps removed. Nobody is having a go at her personally, but I think for a lot of the silent majority, they have realised that silence is a form of complicity and they have to work out what they CAN do.

For an ordinary civilian, being on the losing side in a quick war is not necessarily a terrible outcome

I was reading tweets from a Chechen yesterday. They said living there is equivalent to North Korea - brutal repression.and poverty. Why do you think Ukraine would be different?

Thank you.

I am also on the pessimist side here. It is easy to get caught up in the optimism as you see videos of abandoned Russian tanks and of clueless Russian soldiers surrendering. But to see a straight line from there to victory is to underestimate just how much evil Putin is capable of.
I am not big on military tactics but I would think that what is initially a home field advantage for Ukraine becomes a disadvantage when Russia has 11 timezones worth of relatively functional home country behind them, with food reserves and functioning hospitals, whilst the Ukranians have seen a significant chunk of their working age population become refugees. Who will be left to bake bread or repair a broken bit of road in two weeks time?
It may sound like a conspiracy theory, but in The Road to Unfreedom writer Snyder argues quite convincingly that when the Russians targeted civilians in Aleppo it wasn't carelessness, but an intentional effort to create the refugee crisis of 2015. There are speeches where Putin explains how this tactic will destabilise Western Europe and boost parties like AfD. That's how little human life is worth to him.

Well exactly, but regardless of the political system I really don't want to see Russians in other countries attacked or made to fear for their lives. I don't know how likely that level of hostility is in how many countries.

Sketchy bald&bankrupt dude videos removed

I’d do a bit of digging on him before directing traffic his way

Any further info? Some guy at work was recommending his videos today. He does also like Joe rogan though.

I'm inclined to agree. I don't see how the Russian's haven't baked in this supposed incompetence. I'm sure it's all part of the plan.

Why do you think Ukraine would be different?

It's tempting to draw parallels but there are significant differences in scale, status and Russia's objectives.

Chechnya is recongnised by the UN as part of Russia and small enough that it can be permanantly occupied by military force. Effectively it has endured a long 20-year war and ongoing occupation rather than having lost a short war. Russia's objective was to occupy it permanently to stop it breaking away.

Ukraine is too big for the Russians to be able to occupy it militarily in the same way, and it is recognised by everyone including Russia as being an independent country. They will have to make some sort of peace and leave most of it - which was their objective. Hard to see them trying to stay in any areas where they don't have majority public support (Crimea, Donbas, etc).