Russian invasion of Ukraine

I don't know where the Geneva convention stands on trolling and calling out your opps on socials, but Ukraine army are going for it (NSFW language + some visuals)

https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/1498023164936400903?s=20&t=Mxdyy9LlP7LUqh6UfDUScA

It sound better but it’s quite wordy, not something you want it to make it harder to find.

Since we're title editing, also edited for ease of search

Also pinned to home page, as it's the most active thread on the forum right now... and whilst I know this is a bike forum we've gone so far off topic I'm fine with the forum adapting to how it's being used.

This page is old (and hidden) but does show this is the top topic https://www.lfgss.com/trending/

I am scared that the freeze on foreign exchange reserves and the corresponding collapse of the Rouble is an escalation that will lead us all somewhere we don't want to be. There is a lot of miscalculation going on from all sides. I hope everyone pivots to diplomacy asap.

We'll definitely pay the price as well. Resources will be more expensive, fuel will be more expensive.

But you can't put a price on freedom and democracy and that's what it's all about.

I agree. I don't think anyone minds paying an economic cost, but could do without nuclear escalation!

Also happy to pay the economic cost.

I don't know if it's an unpopular opinion, but I'd rather Putin has Ukraine than the world was destroyed.

It is going to absolutely crippling for the ordinary citizen in Russia

He has lost already. I believe now it's just about saving face and going back to his palace. He is loaded. He will be rich until the end of his days, doesn't matter what the west do.

As of nuclear stuff - I don't believe it. It's just a desperate flex, nothing more. Kyiv is so close to their own borders - both Russian and Belarus. And again - they're brotherly nations, 95% of Ukrainians speak Russian.

that's the gamble isn't it... that the Russian people don't want this or understand it, and that the cost will be crippling, and it will create the conditions for uprising in Russia against Putin.

it feels like that is the gamble, and it's a big one if it is.

Or it plays into Putin's narrative that the West is out to get Russia and public opinion swings behind him.

What scared me from the outset is that the chain of events is incalculable once a war starts.
Noone can confidently say where this ends on a spectrum from a ceasefire this week to nuclear apocalypse.

As of nuclear stuff - I don't believe it. It's just a desperate flex, nothing more

I hope you're right. As a normal person it's kind of worked terrifying me haha.

As of nuclear stuff - I don't believe it. It's just a desperate flex, nothing more.

This has been the prevailing thought for the entire build up, of this and previous Russian incursions.
As has been repeated by Russian Analysts (Seddon, Rosenberg, etc).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60551140
https://www.ft.com/content/c039db89-7201-4875-b31f-b41a511496f1

He is loaded. He will be rich until the end of his days, doesn't matter what the west do.

That is something I have always wondered though, he is suspected to be the wealthiest man in the world but can he ever retire and enjoy it? Can any authoritarian/ semi-authoritarian leader ever step down and not expect to be bumped off once they have lost control of the all military and security forces. Imagine his options are limited to forever paying someone like Wagner Group to protect him or hope somewhere like Saudi or UAE let him retire there but neither allow for much freedom. And if you don't fancy those options and decide you will die in office, I guess it allows you to take different types of decisions.

Can any authoritarian/ semi-authoritarian leader ever step down and not expect to be bumped off

Don't have a link now, soz, but the Economist suggested some years ago that he can't. Plenty of pissed off small time gangsters and businessmen out there. People who were this close to making it big before Putin and his inner circle cut them short and left them hanging in a forever limbo of not-quite-oligarch but not quite a failure either.

Nuclear escalation is the big worry for me too. Putin’s never going to nuke Kyiv - his nuclear posture is aimed at making NATO and the EU step back so that he can get on with his plans for Ukraine.

Unless there is a way out of the corner he’s in that lets him save face, then I think the chances of us getting out of all this without him setting a nuke off are diminishing. Now, that doesn’t mean he’s going to start a nuclear exchange off the bat, much more likely is an atmospheric test somewhere - essentially sabre rattling. But once he’s broken that taboo, the chances of accidental or inadvertent escalation are what worries me.

That’s not to say NATO/EU should back down in the face of nuclear blackmail, that would be disastrous. If it works for him this time, he’ll keep doing it.

I am scared that the freeze on foreign exchange reserves and the corresponding collapse of the Rouble is an escalation that will lead us all somewhere we don't want to be. There is a lot of miscalculation going on from all sides. I hope everyone pivots to diplomacy asap.

yes this is always a massive risk in these situations and extremely worrying (speaking as someone who is currently sitting just 30 miles away from the UK's nuclear deterrent base of operations). every time there's another incremental ratcheting of pressure on russia announced, I think about this anecdote

1 Attachment

Scary times. I really hope diplomats in EU, China and the US are talking to each other and looking for off-ramps that allow him to save face while ending the conflict in Ukraine. Muppets like Liz Truss suggesting Brits go and volunteer don't help.

In the long line of pathetic people in UK government, has there ever been a worse person for their role, for the global climate than Truss? I can't think of any.

Boris Johnson?

has there ever been a worse person for their role, for the global climate than Truss? I can't think of any

<ahem> Johnson was Foreign Secretary a few years ago...

Although I'd also suggest that Dominic 'don't understand Calais' Raab would have been a really bad one too

current PM is a good shout. as is truss's predecessor.

When he famously ditched his personal security detail to fly to a weekend long party at Evgeny Lebvedev's Italian villa.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/26/boris-johnson-security-evgeny-lebedev-perugia-party

I hope the EU, US etc have a plan for a rapid path to stabilisation in the event of a russian withdrawal or a lot of stuff is going to be extremely bad (in russia and other countries which rely on remittances from migrant workers in russia)
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498144178706034690

1 Attachment