Russian invasion of Ukraine

Twitter is now full of military instructors giving mini lectures on urban defensive warfare tactics and genuine actual tank mechanics advising on weak spots. What a time to be alive.

Germany is supplying Stinger missiles to Ukraine. Russia might loose air dominance.

BBC reporting that the Russians are running out of fuel for tanks. Normally a sign you have gone too quickly and left your logistics behind or you didn’t allocate enough in the first place.

Random thoughts:

1). Apparently Rosgavardia have been operational in Ukraine, despite no history of working with the Russian military. Is that because they are loyal to Putin?
2). Captured Russian soldiers are saying they never expected to attack Ukraine. What is their morale like?
3) I saw a video on the BBC of a Ukrainian civilian pulling up next to a Russian tank that had run out of fuel and offering them a tow back to Russia. The Russian soldiers laugh and chat with him. Are they really going to fight street to street to subdue Ukraine?

If England launched a war of aggression against Scotland, how long would it last before troops realised they were the same people?

Putin's miscalculations seem to have been off the wall.

Possibly enough fuel for a quick 1 day drive into the centre of Kiev.
Not so much when you are engaged in combat, and have to take detours around villages, towns, blown up bridges.

This thread is nearly there.

When/if Kiev is under siege, and the streets are blockaded, and there are stinger missiles on the roofs, and NLAWs poking out the shops, not going to fun for low morale Russian soldiers to drive their tanks and fly their helicopters in.

That (to layman me) sounds incredibly strange, so strange that i have strong doubts about the validity. They have more experience than most militaries in the world but now their vehicles are out of fuel?

If they thought they would be done in 24 hours then why plan for day 3?

They certainly haven’t gone too fast they should have been at Kyiv within a day.
Russian doctrine is to keep advancing, as the point units are worn down for one reason or another they are replaced by fresh units rather than resupplied.
150,000 troops was unlikely to be enough, you are supposed to have a 3:1 ratio to attack. Perhaps Putin just didn’t have enough well equipped loyal troops, perhaps he just got it badly wrong

See polystyrene ceiling tiles in kitchens when there is a fire.

Most military vehicle manuals have destruction techniques.

Because its war and even in a lot less serious matters ppl who know what they are doing have contingency plans?

Suggestion from a Ukrainian being interviewed in Kiev that Russian army are deliberately emptying the fuel out of their tanks so they don't have to fight.

Don't troops have to believe they are fighting for something?

Because no plan survives first contact with the enemy

That would seem more plausible than the fact that they had to little with to begin with but even that to me sounds like missinformation and unlikely. But would be great if true.

I remember reading reports from earlier in the week that there were boozy russian troops in Belarus selling diesel.

I saw that too. And the assesments that the troops couldn't be kept in their forward positions for much longer if they were going to stay fresh.

On a separate note, given Putin is clearly extremely anxious about quite how small his cock is, I am worried about how we will be taking this humiliation. Let's hope he doesn't start chucking nukes to prove how hard he is.

From what I have read, Russia has approx 800k professional troops vs 200k in Ukraine.

I assume Russia can’t commit all of their 800k soldiers vs all of Ukraine’s in addition to conscription, civilians and volunteers.

Rolling into the capital with 2000 tanks isn’t really an option any more either, with suitable airports not being fully secured.

I assume supply vehicles and Russian supply chain are primary targets for the Ukraine Air Force, missiles and artillery.

Not an easy victory, and I’m deeply concerned it will step up in violence and destruction.

I think I read that Russia had 2/3 of their entire ground forces on the Ukrainian borders

Don't troops have to believe they are fighting for something?

This was thing that struck me about the video of the Ukrainian woman challenging the armed soldier and telling him to put sunflower seeds in his pockets so something Ukrainian would grow when he fell. His responses were that of person very much doing their job, not of person who had real conviction or belief in it.

Because its war and even in a lot less serious matters ppl who know what they are doing have contingency plans?

This seems apt: https://samf.substack.com/p/a-reckless-gamble?

If it is the case, as Putin has consistently claimed, that Ukraine is a non-state, an artificial creation, with a government that is illegitimate and controlled by Nazis, then it would not be surprising if he also supposed that ordinary Ukrainians would not fight hard for such an entity. They might even, as the Russian Ambassador to the UN suggested, greet the incoming Russian forces as liberators

step up in violence and destruction

It's this isn't it. The easy win didn't happen, but Russia can surely escalate in ways Ukraine can't.

This is what's taking out the tanks, apparently. Them tanks are $4m a pop:

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/defence/video-ukrainian-forces-reportedly-armed-with-belfast-built-bazookas-3587105

Most estimates are 150k-200k were moved to the border but this includes the rebels in Donetsk and Luhansk. Of these they are suggesting just over 50% have now been moved into Ukraine with the rest still held in reserve.