Russian invasion of Ukraine

.edit. Ignore me. Not the thread for glibness

Juat catching up with the tread. Scary horrendous and angering all at the same time. Just want to wish those that have colleuges family and friends in Ukraine and those there all the best.

Maybe that will prove true.

The Westminster Russia Forum, previously known as the Conservative Friends of Russia, has quietly changed the hobnobbing events it has planned in London this year to “TBC Subject to Ongoing Conflict in Ukraine”.

Sanctions

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@Stonehedge sorry for being out of order in this thread earlier.

The financial sanctions will do precisely nothing, as discussed previously Putin and the oligarchs are well prepared and insulated.

However funnily enough more powerful IMO is being cut out of international culture and sports that will bite more. Oligarchs won’t notice losses of a few million or an empty house in Chelsea, but they will indeed notice not being able to have a ‘bollyparty’ with their mates at the F1 etc.

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[Edit]

Playing catch up

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60526891

If the Kremlin wants a regime change in Kyiv, who is their supposed replacement for Zelensky? Shouldn't some pro-Russia firebrand from Luhansk or Donetsk be shouting his head off in the social media by now?
The alternative is that they will go one step further and simply abolish the office of the Ukrainian President altogether and just make Putin the President of Ukraine as well.

Some cognitive dissonance. Are we meant to believe Putin could influence the US presidential election, brexit vote etc, but he can only achieve his political objectives in Ukraine through invasion?

Watching a discussion on Lithuanian TV again, great insights here.

Main threat for Putin isn't NATO, nazis, drug addicts in power or whatever, main threat for him is democracy in his neighbouring country. That's what he hates.

Kiev is sort of symbolic for him, he just wants to decapitate the government and raise Russian flag there.

always assumed the “putin did brexit” conspiracy/meme was just qanon for liberals

Influencing the outcome of democratic elections by a few points of a tipping point is hardly the same as influencing Ukraine to demilitarise and accept him as glorious eminence.

Bingo

revenant.

@Stonehedge sorry for being out of order in this thread earlier

Not accepting your apology because no apology needed. I appreciate it nonetheless.

(We had a quick chat in DMs earlier and thrashed it out).

If you’d told many of our great-grandparents in the Pale that a Jewish man would be Ukrainian war leader against a Russian invasion they would have blink incredulously:

https://mobile.twitter.com/b_judah/status/1497261844737581057

Found this an interesting read on the mechanics of waging a war: https://samf.substack.com/p/a-reckless-gamble?

Some insights from that discussion on Lithuanian tv:

1. the sanctions that are being imposed now are too late - they should've been imposed a decade ago when Putin annexed Crimea. He is ready to endure even more of them. He's smart. He got it all calculated.
   
2. Economic ties work only with truly democratic countries - once you get too involved with regimes those ties start controlling you from taking real action.
   
3. In Crimea there were "mysterious green men" - russian fighters w/o russian uniforms and Putin told they weren't russians. Why NATO can't do the same? Military invasion without flags and say basically the same thing - it wasn't us. The thing is - Putin is a thug. A man of action. And while we discuss, read documents and articles, wonder if we can act this and that according to international laws, Putin just goes and fucks shit up. NATO was involved in a war with Serbia. Their pretext? War in the middle of Europe. We can do this again.
   

Why NATO can't do the same? Military invasion without flags and say basically the same thing

Because their isn't the same attitude to hiding the deaths of serviceman and not caring about domestic sentiment

Is there proof this isn’t a normal swap over with operational sub returning in a few days?

Makes sense. On other hand our (NATO) weapons and preparation is superior to Russia. Half of their equipment is falling apart while on journey.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis-russian-transport-plane-crashes-amid-ukraine-crisis-crew-killed-2788132

1. Think that is right, Putin has controlled the situation to be leader the prime minster and leader again.
   
2. When have economic sanctions worked?
   
3. (EDIT) In reply to why NATO/US don't do the same Suspect that those actions happen more in the TV than real life, the usual trick is to arm and train the people you are backing. See the history of the Taliban.
   
   

Olga Koch has a take on Putin and Russia after what happened to her father and then her family.

Tories, media publish lies, death threats follow:

https://twitter.com/zarahsultana/status/1497299178644516871

Suspect that those actions happen more in the TV than real life, the usual trick is to arm and train the people you are backing.

It happenned in Crimea.