Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

There are many legitimate points to make about NHS capacity, and whether additional measures should have been taken to try and suppress the spread of omicron. But if one solely looks at excess deaths, then it is hard to say the government has got this wrong.

Ps - to clarify I don’t mean @Stonehedge or @GoatandTricycle are disappointed that excess deaths aren’t higher. I know they are both good faith posters, (though I do think @Stonehedge has a sub conscious bias to pessimism).

I had twitter posters like Deepti Gurdasani and Christina Pagel in mind. And of course I don’t really mean that they wish more people had died. But I do think that once they have called for something ( lockdown measures), they have a strong psychological motive to look for and present data points as to why those proposed measures should have been implemented, irrespective of what the reality is.

I work for the NHS, I have a conscious bias to pessimism...

That's a shitty opinion, I think people are just wanting to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best

Or as doctors and scientists call it, the precautionary principle, which has done the human race pretty well over the last century or so.

Can you advise what the data source is for the ‘50% more pathogenic than the original virus’ statement is?

So anyone read Novak parent message about how we are all being horrible to their son?

Yes. Hopefully one thing we can all agree is that Novak Djokovic is an absolute tool.

Like, hey great news guys, excess deaths are way below prior waves!

I guess you'd want to be pretty certain that was the case and why, because if you start shouting that everything is wonderful and only lots of people are dying, but not as many as before there's a pretty good chance you could make things worse if everyone starts running into the street and fucking because it's all over, whereas if you're cautious and wrong, or just overcautious then you might accidently make things the same.

Have you looked at the data for South Africa? I think we can say with a very high level of confidence that excess deaths are far below prior waves.

I genuinely feel like I am being gaslighted. Stonehedge posted something that was wrong (direct quote
“ excess deaths in South Africa hit 30% recently, nearly at the level they had in January 2021”). I asked for the source data, which showed that claim was wrong.

It really does seem that people’s commitment to an accurate representation of data only goes one way.

A bit, fingers crossed everything turns out wonderful and we can all get to the street fucking, seems a bit early to call that for here or the rest of the world though, there's still a fair few people dying more than they would do otherwise, and that's after lots of the people who are more likely to die have died and many of the rest have some kind of protection from previous infection or vaccine or both.

we can all get to the street fucking, seems a bit early to call that for here or the rest of the world though

Please link to where I have suggested that?

The street fucking? I said that. Calling it for the rest of the world? You keep going on about being optimistic rather than pessimistic when I don't think anyone is being either really, your posts read to me like you want everyone to be rejoicing here because of SA data, like it'll apply the same, maybe I'm not understanding you properly, everyone wants things to be as good as possible.

Can you advise what the data source is for the ‘50% more pathogenic than the original virus’ statement is?

There are various ways of calcuating it. Following figures are all in the immune naive:

Risk of hospitalisation with Omicron reduced 41% vs Delta. But Delta vs Alpha increased risk 52%. And Alpha vs wild type increased risk 62%. = Net +51%

Sources:

Omicron: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-50-severity-omicron/
Delta: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext#sec1
Wild: https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/4662827/

You can use different sources for hospitilisation rates and different methods to calculate this. The range of results is Omicron being anything from 13% more likely to hospitalise than wild all the way up to twice as much. 51% is the figure you arrive at if you use only UK sources.

Let’s hope Deltacron doesn’t have the transmissibility of Omicron with the death rate of Delta.

I had twitter posters like Deepti Gurdasani and Christina Pagel in mind.

Out of curiosity, what do you think they've got most wrong?

.

I’m dreading omega, (wo)man. After omicron it’s the most dire sounding letter. Add all the judeochristian dogma around alpha and omega, and it’s a field day for fanatics.

this math sounds incredibly dodgy

Maths ffs

omega, (wo)man

Charlton Heston would never agree to this

Risk of hospitalisation with Omicron reduced 41% vs Delta. But Delta vs Alpha increased risk 52%. And Alpha vs wild type increased risk 62%. = Net +51%

Can you write out your calculation?

The recent data from the Scottish adminstration suggests that 40% of the hospitalisation headline figures relate to those who are not actually ill from COVID but have merely tested positive in hospital.

The reverse ferret continues, in that organ of authoritarian thought, the Grauniad...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/08/end-mass-jabs-and-live-with-covid-says-ex-head-of-vaccine-taskforce

Interesting that the Grauniad no longer commissioning think pieces from the likes of Reicher and Sridhar.

@Stonehedge the graphs I posted a couple of days ago clearly show the levels of vaccination in the UK and the transmission growth in Omicron. No narrative necessary. Your screenshots from Twitter are not clear as to which forecast from the Warwick paper they refer to, and are from a social media source. The graphs I posted were from a .gov source.

The continued scaremongery about Omichron sets us up nicely for the Cypriot variant...

Reicher clearly mad..

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Sridhar daydreaming of a best seller

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Heneghan polishing his chilling viber breh..

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