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@Stonehedge I am still genuinely interested to know what you think about South Africa? That the data is wrong? That they haven’t reached peak yet? That it isn’t relevant to us because of demographics / prior immunity / something else?
Not sure how much my personal opinion is worth on this, but in a nutshell:
Cases have peaked but admissions and deaths are still trickling upwards. Lots more kids ending up in hospital. Significant rise in excess deaths. Covid deaths have increased x10 since the Omicron wave started in week 47. Even taking these into account its clear that they are doing a lot better than in Delta wave. That said, they also had an excess death rate of over 400 per 100k in the Delta wave which is indicative of the fact that SA had amongst the higest infection rate for Delta of any country in the world, leading to decent levels of natural immunity which has helped with Omicron. The suggestion is that while their young poopulation is still as young as it was for Delta, a lot of the most vulnerable people in those brackets died from Covid.
So yes...much lower admissions and deaths than Delta. However, the numbers there indicate that if we have even 50% of their situation, the NHS is at risk of being overwhelmed.
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Stonehedge
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Thanks for reply on SA. As a parent the seemingly increased risk to children is worrying. It also reinforces the view that these mutations have given us a very different virus.