Should Scotland be an independent country?

I wonder how the SG will spin this one..

Overall, Scotland contributed 7.9% of UK tax revenues in return for a 9.1% share of UK public spending.

https://archive.is/v2Ijo

In the UK a surprisingly small % of people pay the majority of income tax: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8513/

If I were Scots Gov I'd be working out how I could attract people from England to come and live in Scotland who are in the upper brackets.

Be interesting to see what sort of migration of well paid individuals and families would do to the overall figures - getting your EU passport back, not having to watch as the income tax you paid goes to Matt Hancocks pub landlord rather than paying for the NHS, and watching as Boris has to site Trident submarines in Greenwich are all a powerful motivator.

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what has been required for the longest time (and what won't happen as long as there are conservative governments in WM) is significant, long-term rebalancing (and investment in) the entire country. the current state of affairs is a poor reflection on WM, not good. the UK is the most regionally imbalanced country in europe, with quality of living and life expectancy in its poorest regions significantly below the european average.

such rebalancing could take the form of e.g. allowing scotland to organise its infrastructure so that its connections with the whole of the rest of the planet do not all have to be funnelled through the bottleneck of london. over recent years, scotland's direct connections with the continent and with the US have if anything dwindled, as UK investment continues to be channelled to london infrastructure (e.g. a tenth of chunnel bailout, a tenth of the M26, the whole of the jubilee line, paid for heathrow extensions, 4bn for a train set that doesn't come within hundreds of miles of the country etc).

an independent scotland could spend that money on rebuilding its direct connections with the rest of the world. just look at a map - the air-miles (and sea miles) from places like rotterdam, bruges, frankfurt etc to scotland's main cities are not substantially farther (sometimes closer) than the distance to london.

Based on the pre Covid figures analysis below, any high earners moving to Scotland post independence would face a significant tax burden and at least a decade of austerity (Wilson has projected six years in the link below).

Unsurprisingly (and still the case)...

The SNP, which currently lacks a detailed economic prospectus for an independent Scotland, did not respond in detail to the FT’s estimates and reiterated calculations from the Wilson commission.

https://archive.is/yPebu

Edit to add.. FT from 2 April 2021

Another BS non-story. Here’s a more nuanced version Scottish public spending deficit doubles to £36bn https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-58256028

The spin begins (sorry nuance)...

If we've learnt anything from Brexit the economics are not going to change anyone's minds.

Maybe the Yes movement should get themselves a bus?

Aaah.. Mad Mike has got himself a horsebox as a banner platform..

Nah, definitely not

Based on the pre Covid figures analysis below, any high earners moving to Scotland post independence would face a significant tax burden and at least a decade of austerity (Wilson has projected six years in the link below).

I qualify as a high earner, I am aware that moving to Scotland would increase my tax burden - and that there are likely to be rough seas before the smooth.

But, on balance, moving to Scotland, paying more tax, voting for Independence - that's better than staying in England where FPTP means that my vote will never be heard and that my tax is spent on blatant, endemic corruption.

I'm driving up to Edinburgh on Saturday to get a better idea of where to rent for the next six months ahead of (if I survive the Scottish winter) buying somewhere.

How many people will do the same thing? Hard to say - but it's the only route out of Tory misrule if you only have a UK passport for many.

I also submit Nando's closing branches as they've run out of Chicken due to Brexit induced driver shortages as the very tip of the spike that's going to drive itself into Brexit Britain over the next few years. Will a shut Nando make people move to Scotland? No - but constant rolling shortages and closures (and we've not even started performing border checks yet on incoming goods) may persuade those with the means to move.

I suspect the changes to the way we work will also help this.

if I survive the Scottish winter

godspeed...

godspeed...

How I envisage going to Sainsbury:

👀

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I have just ordered a vehicle with 4WD, but not that one.

...Cybertruck?

I live near the border with Scotland and I'm sure that those who live in Scotland and come to work over the border pay English tax rates?

I honestly don't know how it would work - technically my place of work would be London, but the place I would actually work in most often would be a room in my house. One way of finding out I suspect.

Key thing for me would be to be a legal resident of Scotland, so I could vote and so forth, pay local taxes etc etc.

It's like this, only windy too

But that's good, right? Blows the midges away.

Tax stuff here (the S code).. https://www.gov.uk/scottish-income-tax/who-pays

IMO the likelihood of another ref in the next few years is low. The polls don't support it.

@Dammit are you looking at the borders for MTB wonderland?

The likelihood of a referendum is non-zero, I'll take that gamble.

I sincerely believe that the polls will change as Octobers border checks come in and the cover that Covid has given to the damage of Brexit starts to lift, but of course - we shall see.

And I'm thinking Edinburgh, but if something cool came up in Peebles I can't say I wouldn't snap it up.

Just make sure you've had your tea...

Its not at all like this. Its pitch black and sleeting sideways.

This looks positively idyllic.

Think it's only strong sunlight frightens the midges away. Oh, wait...

No - but constant rolling shortages and closures (and we've not even started performing border checks yet on incoming goods) may persuade those with the means to move.

One might say like rats escaping a sinking ship