Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

I think we can be confident this isn't just a data glitch or a drop in testing.

But also doesn't yet take into account all restrictions lifting, nightclubs, travelling for holidays, massive drop in mask wearing, festivals etc. In another couple of weeks we will have a better idea of where we are IMO.

In another couple of weeks we will have a better idea of where we are IMO.

True, but we (collectively) have been saying that pretty much every week for about the last 18 months.

Doesn't make it not true.

Yes, but this time IF the spike from re-opening is manageable for the NHS and vaccinations over the rest of summer nudge up to 90% and IF there is no significantly worse new variant incubating somewhere, it's looking like we might be at the 'living with it' stage.
Plenty of variables still, but I haven't been as optimistic since the start.

vaccinations over the rest of summer nudge up to 90%

Which is really ~70% of people

Sure, but my point is that we're never going to get to anything approaching stability for there not be just one more thing that we are waiting for that could be having a big effect on the stats, well, not for a good while at least (late September).

We've had the effect from the Euros but we're not sure because it's mixed up in the possible effects from schools finishing last week.

Families will start to go on summer holidays now and many have changed their behaviour because of this (pre-isolating to ensure their trip isn't scuppered) or have gone already. Plenty of mixing in different areas of the country, in different circumstances and venues.

We'll then have the possible effects from the "no need to isolate if double jabbed, etc" rule change on August 19th.

We'll also have the effect of people coming back from summer holidays in time to quarantine prior to school starting. There will be both a possible uptick based on infections picked up whilst away, plus the downtick of people quarantining.

Then, early September, we'll have the schools going back and it'll take a couple of weeks for that to kick in.

etc, etc.

Yeah - I get that. My feeling (and could well be completely wrong here) is that those are all going to have smaller impacts as more and more are vaccinated they are mostly spread out events.

This is the big bang moment and the gamble the government are making.

If we get through being pretty much back to normal life this time, future increases in cases will be smaller and the hospitalisations manageable. Hopefully!

.

for there not be just one more thing that we are waiting for

We've never before had a sustained period of cases going down from a high level in the absence of lockdown-type measures. If it can last more than a few days then it's an event worth celebrating in itself, regardless of future twists and turns.

Long covid in young people still is a thing... estimated 1% in under 18s by ons. Definition still being affected after 12 weeks.

But vaccination under 18s is not worth it? I don't get it but obv. really not the expert here.

I'm glad cases are down but not so sure it's all good with vaccination rates only increase very slowly now.

On that note I don't get the resistance against letting double vaccinated people from the EU / USA etc. in. Surely the vaccines are all the same...

What am I missing?

On that note I don't get the resistance against letting double vaccinated people from the EU / USA etc. in. Surely the vaccines are all the same...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57999362

People who have been fully vaccinated in the EU or US will not need to isolate when coming to England from an amber list country.

The change will come into force at 04:00 BST on Monday.

I saw that but Angela Rayner from Mark Drakeford said it was not a good idea and that confused me.

Hopefully NI follows soon.

I've got very mixed feelings about people travelling. Now is not the time for a fortnight on a sunny beach somewhere IMHO but I understand the desire to see family for people that don't live round the corner from their parents. Difficult to ban one while allowing the other and wouldn't play with the typical Tory anyway.

10 days in a flat with a infectious 11yo and my latest (ONS) PCR test, swabbed on the 5th day of our 10 day self-isolation period, came back negative. I assume Mrs GB's has too but she's on a work call and hasn't opened the letter yet.

We just didn't bother trying to keep MiniGB isolated in our flat. We've only got one toilet and one bathroom, and she would have gone bonkers if we'd tried to keep her in her room all day (even with endless telly via a laptop or her phone) so we just carried on as normal indoors and in the garden.

I've got a third antibody test on the way. It can apparently distinguish between post-infection and vaccine antibodies so will be interesting to see if I still have them. Infection march '20, first positive antibody Oct '20, 2nd in Jan '21.

https://twitter.com/Andy_In_The_UK/status/1421160359076016132?s=19

Ah good, the penny’s finally dropping for these chumps.

I really didn't expect our crazy little dystopia to play out in this way... Here come the Vax Wars!!

"Antiva"

There you go! That'll confuse the fuckers... Please start this...

Really? Calling for the lynching of medical staff, comparing vacination to medical test by the nazis (and many others), people physcially/verbally attacking RNLI volunteers.

What an amazing time we live in.

What in the fresh hell are you talking about.

Que?

Gibbering fucknuggetry.

Ignore.

Gibbering fucknuggetry

Aye