COVID-19 vaccines

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deleted in reply to @Chalfie
Good news. I've spent too long playing around in Excel and failing to find a good way to model/ forecast the Exponential curve of the UK's vaccine programme.
I suspect I might need some more statistically minded people, and I need to go to work.

(/million)
```
Date	       US     	UK
15/01/2021	 1.6   0.447
20/01/2021	  2.1	    0.464
25/01/2021	3.3  0.472
30/01/2021	  5.26  0.491
04/02/2021 6.93	0.505
09/02/20219.84	0.519
14/02/2021	   14	   0.539
19/02/2021	   17	   0.604
24/02/2021	20	0.7
01/03/2021	27.8	1.03
06/03/2021	29.8	1.12
11/03/2021	33.9	1.45
16/03/2021	39	1.76
21/03/2021	44	2.28
26/03/2021	48.7	3.3
31/03/2021	54.6	4.5
05/04/2021	62.4	5.5
10/04/2021	70.7	7.47
15/04/2021	78.5	8.93
```
@Fox
I hypothesised that earlier. However it is the jingoism that is irking me. How can we be providing a less efficient roll-out than the privatised, failed HC system of the US?
So yes- the effort individually is incredible, but nationwide must be rife with inefficiency.

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grams in reply to @deleted

Good news. I've spent too long playing around in Excel and failing to find a good way to model/ forecast the Exponential curve of the UK's vaccine programme.

The second dose totals tally closely to the first dose totals from ~11 weeks ago, as expected. So if you want to predict the number of "fully vaccinated" on a given date just look at the first dose total from 11 weeks before.

How can we be providing a less efficient roll-out than the privatised, failed HC system of the US?

The UK rollout is supply constrained. The distribution seems fine, or at least adequate for the volume of supply we have to distribute.

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deleted in reply to @grams

The UK rollout is supply constrained. The distribution seems fine, or at least adequate for the volume of supply we have to distribute.

All programs are subject to similar constraints.

Re 11 weeks. It works up until a point- that point is the interesting part. If your point of supply is as big a factor as you think, then we cannot expand to cover effectively.

If we can, and my assumptions so far have been that the people in charge have factored that into it.

In general- a see my posts previously- I have huge amounts of faith in a system I work in. I just don’t think we’re where the public thinks we are, and this is a problem.

Further, our reopening up has been predicated on first dose number, with predominant mixing in non-vaccinated age groups. This leads to a good assumption that before we get a chance to roll out vaccines to that age range, we will repeat a spike of spread.

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