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Good news. I've spent too long playing around in Excel and failing to find a good way to model/ forecast the Exponential curve of the UK's vaccine programme.
I suspect I might need some more statistically minded people, and I need to go to work.(/million)
Date US UK 15/01/2021 1.6 0.447 20/01/2021 2.1 0.464 25/01/2021 3.3 0.472 30/01/2021 5.26 0.491 04/02/2021 6.93 0.505 09/02/20219.84 0.519 14/02/2021 14 0.539 19/02/2021 17 0.604 24/02/2021 20 0.7 01/03/2021 27.8 1.03 06/03/2021 29.8 1.12 11/03/2021 33.9 1.45 16/03/2021 39 1.76 21/03/2021 44 2.28 26/03/2021 48.7 3.3 31/03/2021 54.6 4.5 05/04/2021 62.4 5.5 10/04/2021 70.7 7.47 15/04/2021 78.5 8.93@Fox
I hypothesised that earlier. However it is the jingoism that is irking me. How can we be providing a less efficient roll-out than the privatised, failed HC system of the US?
So yes- the effort individually is incredible, but nationwide must be rife with inefficiency.
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Good news. I've spent too long playing around in Excel and failing to find a good way to model/ forecast the Exponential curve of the UK's vaccine programme.
The second dose totals tally closely to the first dose totals from ~11 weeks ago, as expected. So if you want to predict the number of "fully vaccinated" on a given date just look at the first dose total from 11 weeks before.
How can we be providing a less efficient roll-out than the privatised, failed HC system of the US?
The UK rollout is supply constrained. The distribution seems fine, or at least adequate for the volume of supply we have to distribute.
grams
The second dose phase of invalids over 45 receiving their second dose is on the way. I've got to book my second this week.