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  • My feeling is that Johnson believes that he can stomach more violence in NI than Brussels can, and that by holding his nerve whilst NI burns eventually the EU will act to save the lives that Johnson will not - and move the border from GB- NI to between Ireland and the r-EU.

    The rioting in NI plays into Johnsons hands as he can blame it on the EU, whereas the move he needs to make (most) to calm things down is to align for SPS, allowing a dramatic reduction in restrictions to (and checks on) trade between GB-NI. But the nutters in the ERG will skin him if he does that, and it would torpedo the UK-USA deal because it would stop Johnson agreeing to their food rules.

    There's no electoral upside to Johnson making any move to reduce the violence that I can see, and if it ultimately leads to a border poll and NI is "taken off his hands" then I suspect his base will be happy with that. Maybe happy in a way that they won't be with regards to Scotland - unsure how losing that nation will play out with the Brexists, I think that they count Scotland as a possession in a way that they don't of NI.

  • Just to give you some idea of the rioting. It is not the rioting we have had in the dark past, it is youths getting a kick out of fighting the police. Previously, guns appeared etc and riots were started to bring security forces into danger with elaborate bombs etc. This is ‘youthful exuberance’ in comparison. It’s not nice and in no way do I support it but it is nowhere near the wide scale madness we have had in the past. Google Drumcree or Day of Action etc. That was widespread throughout all of the province.

    Edit. Someone mentioned the return of the Troubles. This link may give you an idea of what that was like and it’s not pleasant - unpleasant enough to be very unlikely.

    https://flashbak.com/northern-ireland-troubles-1971-belfast-in-50-photos-1445/

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