Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

I wasn't being facetious, you said you didn't understand what the problem is so...

I didn't say they should stop it - the scientists could do it quite effectively, especially if it was fronted by some sort of media person to ask them questions. If it's supposed to be about giving out public health information...

Sturgeon uses them to project an image of a capable, in control leader, which is not entirely accurate but definitely very helpful during an election campaign.

Approval ratings of incumbents have gone up around the world during Covid, even if they've handled it terribly (c.f. Johnson and Co.) and this will compound that.

It stopped PHE communications last election.

Oh yes I guess the scientists can't really do it either being civil servants!

I didn't say they should stop it - the scientists could do it quite effectively, especially if it was fronted by some sort of media person to ask them questions. If it's supposed to be about giving out public health information

I guess that's the issue. Does the message get further reach if Sturgeon (or Boris) delivers the message? I suspect it does but that's just a guess.

I just reminded myself of the various Purdah rules and guidelines. It's fairly clear that a minister is allowed to discharge their current duties without modification as long as they adhere to certain standards around sticking to specific issues and keeping things factual.

I understand why the fuss now but I think it's quite telling that it's only the Express and the Telegraph that seem to be making a fuss about this.

And as you say @fox, it'll be interesting to see if the Tories stop Covid TV appearances for six weeks before election day.

Similar arguments about political campaigning during lockdown are breaking out in Wales and England too from what I just read.

The difference in experience of lockdown for parents compared to none parents is stark.

All I want is silence while my colleagues without kids crave anyone to talk to. I feel for them, but am relieved my needs, sorry, the needs of my children and their education, have been prioritsed!

I'm just about to finish a big project at work. Got loads of leave, so I'm taking next week off to help properly with the last week of homeschool, then taking another week for long bike rides, walks with my lady and no children and then just sitting in a quiet empty house. Can't wait.

We have a wedding in Greece in June, from last June. So, um, yeah.

Congratulations

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1363888315997556740

Sage not feeling so confident.

SAGE - membership at the end of this.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963366/S1082_SAGE__79_Minutes.pdf

I guess, most of those that aren't listed as gov aren't civil servants. would they be purdah'd? Unsure. But WHO ARE ALL THE FUCKING REDACTS EH?

No, we're just crashing. It's not ours. :P

I get that it's not been so bad for us but son rather wants to be in school as well and he's missing out on lots of cool school clubs which may still be closed for a while (yey...)

I still think cautious approach is safer virus wise. I might be too pessimistic though we will know in a few months :)

school clubs which may still be closed for a while (yey...)

I'm waiting for the NYA guidance to come out but I think it is going to be outdoors only which is fairly grim this side of Easter for most things.

I don’t get it... and I’m definitely missing something. But I keep wondering this so I am going to ask. Why would hospital admissions go up and deaths go up if all the vulnerable people (or the greater proportion of them) are vaccinated? I thought the vaccines were all pretty reliably preventing deaths if not total protection from getting the virus. Or is it pretty certain that a variant will mean the vaccines won’t work? Or will just so many people get the virus the tiny percentage of young/healthy people that die will become significant?

Vaccination isn't instantly effective against C-19. It takes a while for antibodies to be produced.
Vulnerable people probably don't have optimum immune systems.

I’ve got severe asthma, been hospitalised a couple of times (though not for about 4 years - currently controlled with inhaled steroids) and attend the asthma clinic at GSTT. I had the vaccine a few weeks ago - though unclear whether they were applying criteria or just working their way down the asthma clinic’s patient list to try and fill gaps as it sounded like there were lots of no shows. I was asked if I wanted a shielding letter ... I declined.

Especially as the outdoors sports club he wants to go to is 0830...on a Saturday

FFS we don't all live next to the school :)

Does the message get further reach if Sturgeon (or Boris) delivers the message?

Yes. Especially in Scotland I'd say, to be fair. It's a lot easier to take advice from someone who communicates well and has a certain level of competence than Boris.

It's fairly clear that a minister is allowed to discharge their current duties without modification as long as they adhere to certain standards around sticking to specific issues and keeping things factual.

I'd say advantage Sturgeon on this one too given Johnson's rambling nature and capacity for porkies.

I understand why the fuss now but I think it's quite telling that it's only the Express and the Telegraph that seem to be making a fuss about this.

Neil Oliver isn't very happy about it in the Times either:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/neil-oliver-scotland-is-making-me-sick-and-its-not-covid-to-blame-05vjqsf2w

Any independent team travelling the world to monitor the safety, legality and fairness of elections would surely witness such an egregious imbalance and be on the first plane out of the country to raise the alarm. In Scotland hardly a soul is moved to bat so much as an eyelid. Much more of this and Scotland will be the sort of place the Foreign Office tells travellers to steer clear of. Is that the tinpot clang of a dictatorship? Do I detect the scent of bananas?

Could well see it ending in court. It's definitely a popcorn story for media correspondents and media lawyers.

Dom's mates?

Or will just so many people get the virus the tiny percentage of young/healthy people that die will become significant?

This. Currently still about 50 million unvaccinated so even though this group is much less vulnerable, there are still loads of them + vaccine efficacy after one dose (most people so far) is lower, so increases the small % who still get ill after the vaccine + new variants possibly having more resistance to vaccines.

The new variants part is the scary one for me. Christina Pagel, who has been pretty on the money with this so far, is basically saying if you open up this summer you create the perfect breeding ground for a vaccine resistant strain.

This monster thread also touches on all the other risks with opening up including vaccine disparity in deprived communities and long covid and how that is emerging as a concern in children.

I'm glad I'm not making the decisions, but I'd rather be safer than sorry with the opening up.

Any independent team travelling the world to monitor the safety, legality and fairness of elections would surely witness such an egregious imbalance and be on the first plane out of the country to raise the alarm. In Scotland hardly a soul is moved to bat so much as an eyelid. Much more of this and Scotland will be the sort of place the Foreign Office tells travellers to steer clear of. Is that the tinpot clang of a dictatorship? Do I detect the scent of bananas?

Bloody hell. This reads like a Daily Mail Oped. What has happened to The Times?

Again the problem of hunkering down too long to be "better safe than sorry" will likely cause more deaths due to the ongoing detrimental effects on mental and physical health, and (more specifically) the austerity it creates than are saved due to avoiding Covid-19 deaths. Especially now that the groups responsible for 99% of Covid-19 deaths are long on their way to as good a vaccination status as we can expect.

If the recent decisions are being science/data led then hopefully the consensus agreement behind it factors this in to how long they think they can reasonable keep the lockdown in place.

I'm sure there will be dissenting views in SAGE and iSAGE, it's obviously not a decision that is going to be unanimous or clearly defined by "Science", otherwise the decision would be obvious to all. And I expect that the dissenting views will get more air time and twitter time than the majority of the SAGE/iSAGE members that do agree. Such is life.

The other problem is that even in a mostly vaccinated population (e.g. if they have offered all adults at least the first dose of the vaccine by 21st June) there will still be deaths from Covid-19 much like there are usually 20,000 deaths from flu each year. The vaccine isn't 100% effective, nor is it going to have 100% coverage, plus there are even more unknowns. But, the key difference between Influenza and Covid-19 is the possibility of large number of cases of severe "Long Covid".

I also suspect that by June there will be a plan (or a plan for a plan) for childhood immunisiation, probably in the form of an intranasal spray like the Flu vaccine that school kids are offered each year. There must be hundreds of trials of vaccines for children underway in the UK and abroad.

What has happened to The Times?

They have been like this for the last several years.