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Yeah, I'm not making predictions, but wondering (more hoping) out loud. I do, at the very least, think it's a possibility. And as the pressure builds both politically and economically, the possibility only increases.
Challenge there is that there is an answer - and it's the obvious answer that the EU thought was clear from the following:
- The UK prioritises a theoretical deal with the US above most things
- Certainly above SPS issues with NI (if they prioritised NI above the US deal then they could as mentioned have signed up to the EU SPS regs as for e.g. NZ has partially done)
- So there will be issues, and there's a transition to smooth them out (which Gove now wants to extend).
However, and this is not original it's PM Fosters observation - the transition period is not there (from the EU perspective) to work out how to "fix" GB-NI trade of for e.g. chilled sausages, it's there to give NI time to find a sausage supplier in the EU.
From the EU perspective the choices that the UK government has made make it inevitable that SPS qualifying goods will stop going GB-NI, and start going EU-NI, and this is based on what Frost et al asked for and was given.
But the UK government hasn't even got to the stage of admitting that there is a border in the Irish Sea, much less telling Arlene that they prioritised chlorinated chicken above her entire constituency.
What's needed is a very great deal of pressure to make the UK government acknowledge reality, and the question there is does their vote hold up if they just focus on "poor NI, the victim of the evil EU" does that make the requirement to admit to said reality go away for long enough to win another election?
- The UK prioritises a theoretical deal with the US above most things
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Dammit
Agreeing to the EU SPS rules would allow the removal of a huge number of the biggest issues- but it means two things (maybe three) from the UK gov:
And I don’t think they have the integrity to do any of those rather than lose NI.
So we get Gove’s letter, asking for a two year transition for the rules his government asked for, four weeks after signing up to them, and before many come into action.