Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

I'm not so sure.
There's been a continual "light touch" about stuff like:
Not wearing face masks
Wearing them incorrectly
Being out and about
Doing what you want
Making people go to work
Etc etc and so on

Assuming tier 5 is inevitable, and it includes education, what else should stop?

Bars and pubs. I love my local but I have to bite my tongue every morning and evening I cycle past it because there’s always groups of adults standing shoulder to shoulder laughing and drinking.

They should be closed under Tier 4

And Tier 3 for that matter

surely a lot of non-compliance is directly traceable to cunty cummings and his consequence free to-ings and fro-ings?

Would a new Government bring the clout to activate a change? Like a lackadaisical business getting a new no-nonsense manager to replace the dishevelled bumbler who let things go bad.

They should be closed under Tier 4

Still open for takeaway, in this case take it 5 steps away.

hospitality settings, such as bars (including shisha bars), pubs, cafes, restaurants, and social clubs must close except for takeaway, delivery, drive-through and click and collect services.

Edit- I should’ve been clearer in previous post, I meant outside the bar.

I agree

Construction

Ah, yes. My work have refurbed the office. I had to go in a bit to sort out various data things. Lots of trades in all at the same time, very little social distancing, no masks worn. The first and second site managers were both off sick by the end. I don't know what happened with the first but the second was off after a positive test.

Apologies if repost

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1344774555718590464?s=19

^ is there any data on how dangerous it is compared to the older strain?

It looks not?

There was an article some time ago that explained viruses often mutate to more infectious but less dangerous.

Of course it would just be our luck it's more infectious AND as dangerous 🙄

Tx!

So unless it's really much less dangerous, which is not likely, its really bad news :(

And as 1-5 % of people get "long covid" which is sometimes permanent it's worrying.

I'm surprised more people aren't panicking by now, the infections and hospitality curve is higher than the March peak...

All the people we should be listening to are panicking

.

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Estate agents never change.

Zeynep Tufekci on the new variant - written for a US audience but still holds true for here

To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks,
consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on
mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski
compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent
increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of
about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine
10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European
cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d
expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50
percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent
increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in
just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day
infection-generation time.

Transmissibility increases can quickly—very quickly—expand the
baseline: Each new infected person potentially infects many more
people. Severity increases affect only the infected person. That
infection is certainly tragic, and this new variant’s lack of increase
in severity or lethality thankfully means that the variant is not a
bigger threat to the individual who may get infected. It is, however,
a bigger threat to society because it can dramatically change the
number of infected people. To put it another way, a small percentage
of a very big number can easily be much, much bigger than a big
percentage of a small number.

Has anyone seen that explanation of the dangers of the new virus strain by Adam Kucharski? It seems to be spreading at an exponential rate.

Also found this really interesting - it looks like the one thing we are getting right is getting the vaccine out although am a bit worried about vaccine nationalism globally (ie getting to the richest countries rather than simply those in the most need)

From here

Am I misinterpeting today's daily summary figures or are cases up 35% so far this week with 15% fewer tests conducted?

I think it is more less developed countries taking longer to approve vaccines and obviously struggle with distribution, so the Pfizer vaccine hasn't been an option. India has just approved the Oxford/AZ vaccine and have 50m doses sat waiting, so expect to see their bubble swell in the coming weeks.

Israel is interesting as they are leading in terms of % of population vaccinated as they chose to pay a premium to get things early as calculated the extra cost would still be a net gain economically if they can unlock sooner.

One for @Fox

https://twitter.com/CyclingLawLDN/status/1345406618511441921?s=20

Brave boy in the middle there. If only he and the rest of his ilk would bravely volunteer at a covid hospital....

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Feels like C19 is moving in closer...

My gfs family are now ill. We've been doing all we can to limit contact to her step father (as he's the mosr vulnerable) but he's stubborn and been seeing his side of the family. Turns out they've caught it. 2 separate families.

It was once only a story on the news. Now its getting more personal.

I've been hearing rumours that young families are susceptible to the new strain where children are the vectors.

This have any basis in truth?

The west is much harder hit by the virus, partly because of demographics, so they are the most in need.

Although Italy, who have now overtaken the UK in Europe for highest deaths, have barely got got a vaccination plan together.

My wife’s a carer and a household she works for took ill on NYE. They’ve refused to get tested so she’s not been back. She and I have had no symptoms but I’ve been getting monthly Saturday tests because of her job - on the basis that if she gets it I’ll get it. Went down to Stanley Road car park in Leyton yesterday, they were busy but they run an excellent service and I was done in 20 mins. Got a text at 6am this morning with a positive result.