-
Tesla is now worth more than Toyota.
-
Its clearly totally bonkers. But.
If you believe that ICE vehicles are going to go away in the next, say, 10 years, to be replaced with electric, then it begs the question how many of the companies on the right hand side will be able to make the switch? They're built on people and expertise focused on combustion engines, dealer networks based on expensive and complex servicing, and factories and supply chains that have little to do with battery technology.
I guess its equally bonkers that its only now in 2021, after tesla have been selling electric cars for more than a decade, that the incumbents are beginning to offer a range of competitive electric cars. There's got to be a few Kodak's in there
-
it begs the question how many of the companies on the right hand side will be able to make the switch?
At least half of those companies have been working on their own EVs for longer than Tesla has been designing and building cars but are choosing not to make the switch yet. I'd like to understand why.
From a personal perspective, I still heavily favour the experienced car manufacturers when it comes to designing and building cars that people will want to own. Clearly just a guess though.
Last time I checked, Tesla still bought their battery tech from Panasonic and one other company I can't remember. Have they made the switch to something of their own design yet?
-
Tesla have had regular battery supply chain problems. With battery systems. This time last year they were bellyaching about some design aspects of the Panasonic and talking about taking batteries in house to try to meet demand and also improve battery life.
-
Why should they?
Just remembered something else.
VW group have been researching battery designs and as of a few days ago are claiming to have built a viable solid state battery that they say will be in their cars by 2024.This is a Tesla killing feature in terms of range, charging and reliability unless Tesla catch up.
The result could be Volkswagens, Audis, Porsches and Bentleys fitted with 450-500-mile batteries that are safer and lighter than any current lithium-ion battery and can be fully recharged in 15 minutes.
-
Ah yeah this makes sense, I thought the battery supply issues were a natural resource problem so if they'd had made them themselves they would still be competing for those resources. But for a completely new type of cell they might be better of developing something themselves.
Will be interesting to see if those new batteries will deliver on their promises.
https://insideevs.com/news/443450/ex-tesla-solid-state-batteries-false-hope/
-
Yup, theyve only got it working at cell level. They haven't managed to make a working battery yet.
-
At least half of those companies have been working on their own EVs for longer than Tesla has been designing and building cars but are choosing not to make the switch yet. I'd like to understand why.
Yep. My theory (and I know nothing about this, so happy to be corrected) is threefold:
First, most of a car is outsourced - car companies “only” build and design engines and design and assemble the parts. Senior management, decision makers, top engineers at all these companies got to their positions through their expertises in engines. There is a huge organisational inertia to move away from ice.
Someone senior at VW was on the radio a few months back saying that “diesel is part of the solution to a low carbon economy”. It reminded me of the music industry in the post-Napster days when “there are only two kinds of online music company - those we’ve sued and those we’re going to sue”
Second - a proportion of a car company’s revenue comes from service and maintenance of the engine. And that all but disappears with electric cars. They can’t move wholesale until they can workout how to extract the same revenue from the life of the vehicle that they can today.
Third - what do you do with the factory and workforce? Bolting a battery into a chassis must be a fraction of complexity of designing, building and installing an engine.
I can imagine that those sitting at the top of VW or Ford are in no hurry to see hugely successful electric cars.
-
I bought Tesla stock after reading the Musk autobiography in 2018 - I’ve thought about selling it since not because of the valuation but because of Musk’s quite unpleasant attitude/views. But I’m relatively confident in it long term and not like I can retire on it yet 😂
-
Second - a proportion of a car company’s revenue comes from service and maintenance of the engine. And that all but disappears with electric cars.
Batteries do have a finite operating life and cells will have to be replaced in cars if people own them for a few years...
-
But changing a battery is very uncertain and probably just a far smaller amount compared with the regular revenue you'll get from the 10,000 mile or annual service with big cam-belt change at 80k or suchlike.
-
I think the simple answer is that many people will continue to buy ICE vehicles so long as they are available, cheaper than EVs, and have decent range. Quicker charging and more charging points would also help a lot. If you want more people to buy EVs, you have to make them cheaper, extend their range, and/or ban ICE vehicles. Car manufacturers are all researching EVs because they can see which way the wind is blowing, but while people are still buying ICEVs, they’ll keep making them.
-
Car manufacturers are all researching EVs because they can see which way the wind is blowing, but while people are still buying ICEVs, they’ll keep making them.
Yes, agreed - research as an insurance policy, get a single model to market so you dont fall behind, but to answer
At least half of those companies have been working on their own EVs for longer than Tesla has been designing and building cars but are choosing not to make the switch yet. I'd like to understand why.
Their business is built on ICE vehicles, and as long as none of the big manufacturers breaks ranks and goes full speed ahead with a wide range of electric vehicles, produced at a scale that reduces the unit cost so they are cheaper than the ICE alternative, then tesla will remain a niche manufacturer with an insane valuation
andyp
dubtap
ChasnotRobert
c00ps
jaw
DethBeard
Scilly.Suffolk
Skülly
wildwest
cookiemonster
Stonehedge
Tijmen
Tenderloin
h2o-
Post a reply
About
Musk is a cunt and Tesla are shit
Posted by
@itsbruce
Lol. You live in @Chalfie ‘s ends so must be slumming it.