• Daily cases definitely dropping now. Take out the big dip yesterday and the curve is still definitely on the way down. Probably (hopefully) be around the 10k mark by the end of lockdown and continue going down for a while.

    Deaths look like they’re still rising but the rate of increase looks like its decreasing. I’m guessing we’ll see the current peak in about 2 weeks or so. Sad that extrapolating that out suggests the death rate will still be very high over Christmas.

    /CSB / expert armchair statistician etc.


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  • The Graun and the FT both do a 7 day average graph. The new case rate is dropping fast now, and the timing suggests lockdown is having an effect.

    Given the general "normal" number of people out and about I wonder where the cause and effect actually lies? Pubs? Gyms? Not Schools?

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