Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Pfizer and Moderna will be the first-ever messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines brought to market for human patients.

If R is 1.5 for example, and you start with 100 people with the virus, after 5 rounds you'd have 10*(1.5^5) = 75.9 infections.

100*(1.5^5) = 759 active infections

https://m.jpost.com/health-science/could-an-mrna-vaccine-be-dangerous-in-the-long-term-649253

Hah, I wrote that first then double checked it and misread my own starting number as 10 so moved the decimal.

smallpox vaccine wasn't 100% effective. Still didn't stop it being used to wholly eradicate smallpox.

By a similarly startling mechanism, starting a media campaign to put lids on water tanks and empty stagnant ponds managed to completely eradicate Malaria in in the UK in n the 1950s.

It just got the R rate down just low enough in the mosquito population.

Probably not. I wasn't trying to say that the flu vaccine is rubbish though, rather that the covid one isn't so bad.

The argument 'could hypothetically be dangerous' is why these things are tested. With, as yet, no adverse side effects noted. Of course, that could just be due to the Big Pharma conspiracy. Pass me the tinfoil hat, there's a black helicopter up there I can't see...

Yep, public health campaigns work. But yeah, idiots might stop the course of human progress.

It's all about driving fear and identity building, us Vs world.

Humans are crap at estimating risks (in nature overreacting is probably the best response, if somebody has something strange it can wipe out half the tribe) and using numbers just doesn't seem to go in for people that don't understand numerical thinking.

Some interesting covid studies: IF and IF your vitamin D levels are low (not enough to get rickets low, but still low) taking vitamin D will help covid recovery.

The study was done on people that had to go to hospital. So it's not clear if it works if you aren't vitamin D deficient and not in a bad state.

As long as you don't think it makes you definitely covid safe it may really be worth taking it. Or get your levels tested at least, but you may have to pay for that.

(or eat fatty fish/mushrooms often if you don't like supplements)

I think most people could do with more Vitamin D, coronavirus or no coronavirus. From the NHS site:

During the autumn and winter, you need to get vitamin D from your diet because the sun is not strong enough for the body to make vitamin D.
But since it's difficult for people to get enough vitamin D from food alone, everyone (including pregnant and breastfeeding women) should consider taking a daily supplement containing 10 micrograms of vitamin D during the autumn and winter.

Does everyone get deficient over winter or is summer sun enough to see us through?

Edit: answer above

A few hundred pages ago Vitamin D was discussed with, i think, some positivity. It keeps going around. Doesn't seem to have been picked up on though by the wider press or public.
Matt Hancock has shown some interest

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/14/covid-uk-government-requests-guidance-on-vitamin-d-use

It is, to be pedantic, it is an assumption you can use more vitamin D without testing.

But since people aren't routinely tested, as long as you don't take mad doses it is fine to supplement. Note the NHS safe levels are lower than what studies use, so it may be worth taking a bit more than 10. There's some stuffs online about dosing.

NICE is investigating if NHS guidelines should be updated re covid and vitamin D.

Vitamin D, B12 and fibre is the holy trinity of things my dad constantly reminds me about.

Fatty fish has 2/3, I think people uses to eat Kippers (fatty fish) with porridge (fiber) which would set them up for the day.

And stink up the kitchen :):)

B12 is another one that is interesting, same for other B vitamins. I guess I am a bit wary of popping pills, because sometimes taking supplements actually worsens outcomes. (see the whole high dose vitamin C/E and cancer in smokers trial results...) but it may also be very safe.

Getting tested at the moment is extremely difficult.

My daughter was diagnosed as vitamin D deficient by our GP about 18 months ago. She should have had a re-test in the spring to see if things have improved but it's apparently not an urgent enough blood test to happen at the moment. More than slightly frustrating since there were other things not in the normal ranges too. In the mean-time we continue to give her a daily high dose supplement as instructed which annoys her.

I'm generally against messing around with the body's natural balance, but after my dad's repeat mentions of it, and cutting down my meat intake, I looked into B12. I couldn't find anything that explicitly warned against taking B12, and it's one of the more common deficiencies (along with vit D).

There are certainly dangers to knocking back any and all supplements you can get your hands on (like vit C as you mention).

I'd be interested to get some blood work done to see if there are any noteworthy deficiencies there, but that will probably have to wait until post-pandemic.

I had blood tests done in early January as the doc thought my calcium levels might be low (they weren't) and was slightly deficient in vitamin D, so have taken a supplement since - I continued taking it all through summer and might up my dose going into winter, sneezing in public is a nerve-wracking thing. I have a really shitty diet though so kind of need supplements.

Shanghai is on the naughty list in China as we have about 15 cases here. They're all being linked back to cold chain logistics, with some transmission between family members. Is cold chain being blamed anywhere else? It was named as the source of the Beijing outbreak and the Qingdao outbreak but I wonder if that's because the govt has to blame foreign influences and it's hard when most foreigners are banned from entering... Apparently it caused havoc in the imported salmon market.

It’s not recommended to eat farmed salmon.

Slightly off topic but I thought this recent Graun article on how they eradicated smallpox was really interesting

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/nov/21/it-was-a-total-invasion-the-virus-that-came-back-from-the-dead

Tl;dr they used a tracing strategy and vaccinated all the contacts of each case to cut off the spread

Like pigs in a trough. Disgraceful.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/26/matt-hancock-former-neighbour-won-covid-test-kit-contract-after-whatsapp-message

Dhat also questioned how Bourne managed to become involved in providing medical supplies to the government given his limited business experience. Prior to running the Cock Inn, which was sold in January, Bourne set up a string of companies that did not trade and were later dissolved. Hinpack was established in July 2018, trading in disposable items for the catering industry.

Global Britain strikes again.

Global leaders in chumocracy